Turkey and Europe: The Importance of Predictability

The prospect of European Union (EU) membership set in motion in Turkey a virtuous cycle of change. A social consensus grew up around EU aspirations - the conservatives, the arch-secularists, the security establishment, the business community and society at large more or less united around this vision. The EU process empowered the modernisers in society and politics, depriving anti-Western agendas of their appeal. However, from 2005 onwards, those in Turkey who were once enthusiastically driving the process have lost faith that the country will be accepted as a member even if all criteria are met. In addition, a presumption took hold within key policy circles that Turkey can be a leader within its neighbourhood and maximise its potential without being anchored to the EU. The loss of conviction coupled with heightened nationalism and a lapse of strong leadership could very well result in a self-fulfilling prophecy. There are overarching issues in the country that need to be addressed, such as the standardised implementation of laws and the practice of meritocracy. It is not too late to rejuvenate the EU process and re-establish the consensus. In fact, in light of the recent political turmoil the country has experienced, it is more important than ever once again to rally support around this goal.