Abstract
A validation of the agent-based model AgriPoliS by back casting is presented. The agent-based model AgriPoliS is calibrated to a Danish agricultural catchment. The model was supplied with empirical data on the exact location of individual plots as well as farm characteristics of 2,383 individual farms covering the period 1998–2004. Validation was carried out comparing the results of the simulation to the empirical data. The comparison shows that the model simulates development on the most aggregated level (the number of farms in the catchment) relatively well. There are some variations to the degree of precisions on less aggregated levels of analysis. The overall conclusion is that the agent-based model approach utilized here was effective in regard to prediction.
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Notes
- 1.
The numbers used for this comparison include all fields also the areas located far away as the spatial properties of these plots do not influence the calculations.
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Acknowledgment
This research was done as part of a larger project with the acronym MEA-Scope (MEA-Scope 2003, 2004), which was funded under the Sixth framework programme priority by the EU. The authors wish to thank Anna K. Weber for her thorough correction on earlier drafts of this chapter.
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Damgaard, M., Kjeldsen, C., Sahrbacher, A., Happe, K., Dalgaard, T. (2009). Validation of an Agent-Based, Spatio-Temporal Model for Farming in the River Gudenå Landscape. Results from the MEA-Scope Case Study in Denmark. In: Piorr, A., Müller, K. (eds) Rural Landscapes and Agricultural Policies in Europe. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-79470-7_14
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