Abstract
Fault trees are used to model how failures lead to hazards and so to estimate the frequencies of the identified hazards of a system. Large systems, such as a rail network, do not give rise to endless different hazards. Rather, similar hazards arise repeatedly but with different frequency depending on factors such as location. Several authors have identified the need to build models to estimate both system-wide average hazard frequencies and hazard frequencies in specific situations. Fault trees can be used for this but they grow as additional factors are considered. In this paper, we describe a compact model using Bayesian networks. The fault tree notation is retained; with base events parameterised by variables in the Bayesian net to represent a mixture of related fault trees compactly. We use a simple example to describe the model structure and report on ongoing work on a model of train derailment.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Jensen, F.V.: An Introduction to Bayesian Networks. UCL Press, London (1996)
Lauritzen, S.L., Spiegelhalter, D.J.: Local computations with probabilities on graphical structures and their application to expert systems (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 50, 157–224 (1988)
Neil, M., Malcolm, B., Shaw, R.: Modelling an Air Traffic Control Environment Using Bayesian Belief Networks. In: Proc. 21st Systems Safety Conference, Ottawa (2003) ISBN 0-9721385-2-8
Roelen, A.L.C., Wever, R., Cooke, R.M., Lopuhaä, H.P., Hale, A.R., Goossens, L.H.J.: Aviation causal model using Bayesian Belief Nets to quantify management influence. In: van Gelder, B. (ed.) Safety and Reliability, Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse, pp. 1321–1327 (2003) ISBN 90 5809 551 7
Roelen, A.L.C., Wever, R., Hale, A.R., Goossens, L.H.J., Cooke, R.M., Lopuhaä, H.P., Simons, M., Valk, P.J.L.: Causal modeling using Bayesian belief nets for integrated safety at airports. Risk Decision and Policy 9(3), 207–222 (2004)
Watson, H.A.: Launch Control Safety Study, Section VII, vol. 1. Bell Labs, Murray Hill, New Jersey (1961)
US Nuclear Regulatory Commission: Reactor Safety Study. WASH-1400, NUREG 75/014 (1975)
Isograph Software: Fault tree+ for Windows, v11.0, http://www.isograph.com/faulttree.htm
Bobbio, A., Portinale, L., Minichino, M., Ciancamerla, E.: Improving the Analysis of Dependable Systems by Mapping Fault Trees into Bayesian Networks. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 71, 249–260 (2001)
Dennis, C., Somalya, K., Small, A., Singh, P.: The Railway Safety Risk Model. The Journal of the Safety and Reliability Society 22(3), 39–48 (2002)
Campbell, B., Kennedy, A.: Derailment Risk Model (Track Faults), Phase 1. Report of project: T207: Development of a prototype model for managing derailment risk due to track faults. Prepared by Risk Solutions for Rail Safety and Standards Board (2003), Available from http://www.rssb.co.uk/
Safety and Standards Directorate: Safety Risk Model (SRM), Report No. SP-RSK-3.1.3.8 Rail Safety and Standards Board, UK (1999)
Sotera Ltd.: Developing a location specific risk model for Irish Rail (2006), http://www.sotera.co.uk/pdf/Locationspecificriskmodel.pdf
Ale, B., Bellamy, L.J., Cooke, R.M., Goossens, L.H.J., Hale, A.R., Roelen, A.L.C., Smith, E.: Towards a causal model for air transport safety – an ongoing research project. Safety Science 44, 657–673 (2006)
Bearfield, G., Marsh, W.: Generalising Event Trees using Bayesian Networks with a Case Study of Train Derailment. In: Winther, R., Gran, B.A., Dahll, G. (eds.) SAFECOMP 2005. LNCS, vol. 3688, pp. 52–66. Springer, Heidelberg (2005)
Marsh, D.W.R., Bearfield, G.J.: Merging Event Trees using Bayesian Networks. In: ESREL 2007, Stavenger, Norway (to appear, 2007)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2007 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Marsh, W., Bearfield, G. (2007). Representing Parameterised Fault Trees Using Bayesian Networks. In: Saglietti, F., Oster, N. (eds) Computer Safety, Reliability, and Security. SAFECOMP 2007. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 4680. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75101-4_13
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75101-4_13
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-75100-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-75101-4
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)