Finding the Electromagnetic Counterparts of Standard Sirens

The gravitational waves (GWs) emitted during the coalescence of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) will be detectable with the future Laser Interferometric Space Antenna (LISA). The direction and distance can be determined from the accumulated GW signal with a precision that increases rapidly in the final stages of the inspiral. We find that for M = (10⁵ − 10⁷)M_⊙ near z = 1 the angular uncertainty decreases under 1ˆ at least several hours before the plunge, allowing a targeted electromagnetic (EM) observation of the final stages of the merger with a wide field instrument. We then calculate the size of the final, three dimensional error volume. Under the plausible assumption that SMBH-SMBH mergers are accompanied by gas accretion leading to Eddington-limited quasar activity, we find that many cases this error volume will contain at most a single quasar for M = (10⁵ − 10⁷) M_⊙ near z = 1. This will allow a straightforward test of the hypothesis that GW events are accompanied by bright quasar activity. The identification and observation of counterparts would allow unprecedented tests of the physics of MBH accretion, such as precision–measurements of the Eddington ratio. They would clarify the role of gas as a catalyst in SMBH coalescences, and would also offer an alternative method to constrain cosmological parameters.