Impact Assessment of Clean Development Mechanisms in a General Spatial Equilibrium Context

Abstract

The climate on our earth has always been in a state of flux. It has, for instance, exhibited dramatic cycles of glacier movements in the past and it will continue to change in the future. Human beings have — with more or less success — adjusted themselves to such changes, and this has prompted creative survival strategies with far reaching social-economic and geographical implications. In the past century, the intensification of human activity on our earth has also led to man-made climatological changes, e.g., as a consequence of atmospheric pollution, in particular greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide). A higher concentration of such gases tends to make the earth’s temperature higher. If this greenhouse effect continues (as a result of further industrial growth, mobility, household consumption or agriculture), then the earth’ climate may show significant changes, such as changes in the biosphere, variations in wind and weather conditions, melting of glaciers, sealevel rise, wetland loss and erosion. Clearly, a precise prediction of such variations is fraught with many uncertainties, but it is possible that the changes will be rather drastic in the long run.