Abstract
Effective response by government and individuals to the risk of land degradation requires an understanding of regional climate variations and the impacts of climate and management on condition and productivity of land and vegetation resources. Analysis of past land degradation and climate variability provides some understanding of vulnerability to current and future climate changes and the information needs for more sustainable management. We describe experience in providing climate risk assessment information for managing for the risk of land degradation in north-eastern Australian arid and semi-arid regions used for extensive grazing. However, we note that information based on historical climate variability, which has been relied on in the past, will now also have to factor in the influence of human-induced climate change. Examples illustrate trends in climate for Australia over the past decade and the impacts on indicators of resource condition. The analysis highlights the benefits of insights into past trends and variability in rainfall and other climate variables based on extended historic databases. This understanding in turn supports more reliable regional climate projections and decision support information for governments and land managers to better manage the risk of land degradation now and in the future.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Allan RJ (1985). The Australasian Summer Monsoon, Teleconnections, and Flooding in the Lake Eyre Basin. Royal Geographical Society of Australasia.
Barrows TT, Juggins S, De Deckker P, Thiede J, Martinez JI (2000). Sea-surface temperatures of the southwest Pacific Ocean during the Last Glacial Maximum. Paleoceanography, 15:95–109.
Botterill LC (2003). Beyond Drought in Australia: The Way Forward. In: (Botterill LC, Fisher M eds.) Beyond Drought: People, Policy and Perspectives. CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, Victoria, pp. 197–207.
Cai W (2006). Antarctic ozone depletion causes an intensification of the Southern Ocean super-gyre circulation. Geophys Res Lett 33, L03712, doi:10.1029/2005GLO24911.
Cai W, Shi G, Cowan T, Bi D, Ribbe J (2005). The response of the Southern Annular Mode, the East Australian Current and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming. Geophys Res Lett 32, L23706, doi:10.1029/2005GL024701.
Carter JO, Bruget D, Hassett R, Henry B, Ahrens D, Brook K, Day K, Flood N, Hall W, McKeon G, Paull C (2003). Australian Grassland and Rangeland Assessment by Spatial Simulation (AussieGRASS). In: (Stone R, Partridge I ed.) Science for Drought, Proceedings of the National Drought Forum, Brisbane, April 2003. Queensland Department of Primary Industries, pp. 152–159.
Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD (2006) Feasibility of a 100-year reanalysis using only surface pressure data. B Am Meteorol Soc 87:175–190.
Dai A, Trenberth KE, Qian T (2004) A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J Hydrometeorol 5:1117–1130.
Day K, Ahrens D, McKeon G (2003) Simulating historical droughts: some lessons for drought policy. In: Proceedings of the National Drought Forum: Science for Drought. 15–16 April 2003. Brisbane, Queensland, pp. 141–151.
De Deckker P, Kershaw AP, Williams MAJ (1988) Past environmental analogues. In: (Pearman GI ed.)Greenhouse, Planning for Climate Change. CSIRO Australia, East Melbourne, Vic. pp. 488.
Donald A, Meinke H, Power B, Maia A de HN, Wheeler MC, White N, Stone RC, Ribbe J (2006). Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 33: L09704, doi:10.1029./2005GL025155.
Hall WB, McKeon GM, Carter JO, Day KA, Howden SM, Scanlan JC, Johnston PW, Burrows WH (1998) Climate change and Queensland’s grazing lands: II. An assessment of the impact on animal production from native pastures. Rangeland J 20: 177–205.
Hassett R, Carter J, Henry B (2006) Rapid Mobile Data Collection-A Technichue to monitor rangeland condition and provide quantitative and interpretive information for a range of applications. In: (Erkelenz P ed.) The Cutting Edge: Proceedings of the 14th Biennial Conference of The Australian Rangeland Society, Renmark, South Australia 3rd–7th September 2006, pp.202–205.
Hendy EJ, Gagan MK, Lough JM (2003) Chronological control of coral records using luminescent lines and evidence for non-stationary ENSO teleconnections in northeast Australia. The Holocene 13:187–199.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2007). Climate Change 2007 Working Group I: The Physical Basis of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
Lawrence PJ, McAlpine CA, Skytus J, McGowan H, Phinn SP, Crimp S (2007). Modelling the impact of historical Australian land cover change on Australian regional and continental climate. Global Plane Change (In review)
Manins P, Allan R, Beer T, Fraser P, Holper P, Suppiah R, Walsh K. (2001). Atmosphere, Australia State of the Environment Report (Theme Report). Department of Environment and Heritage: Canberra.
McBride JL, Nicholls N (1983) Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 111:1998–2004.
McKeon GM, Ash AJ, Hall WB, Stafford Smith M (2000) Simulation of grazing strategies for beef production in north-east Queensland. In: (Hammer G, Nicholls N, Mitchell C eds.) Applications of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural and natural ecosystems-the Australian experience. Kluwer Academic Press, Netherlands, pp.227–52.
McKeon GM, Hall WB, Henry BK, Stone GS, Watson IW (2004) Pasture Degradation and Recovery in Australia’s Rangelands: Learning from History. Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy. pp. 256
Meinke H, Stone RC (2005) Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: The new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations, Clim Chang 70:221–253.
Narisma GT, Foley JA, Licker R, Ramankutty N (2007) Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century. Geophys Res Lett 34, L06710, doi:10.1029/2006GL028628.
Nicholls N (1988) El Niño Southern Oscillation and Rainfall Variability. J. Climate 1: 418–421.
Nicholls N (1991) The El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Australian Vegetation. Vegetatio 91:23–36.
Nicholls N (2006) Detecting and attributing Australian climate change: a review. Aust Meteorol Mag 55:199–211.
Noble JC, Vines RG (1993) Fire studies in mallee (Eucalyptus spp.) communities of western New South Wales; grass fuel dynamics and associated weather patterns. Rangeland J 15: 270–97.
Pittock AB (1975) Climatic change and the patterns of variation in Australia rainfall. Search 6:498–504.
Power S, Casey T, Folland C, Colman A, Mehta V (1999). Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim Dynam 15:319–24.
Prince SD (2002) Spatial and Temporal Scales for Detection of Desertification. In: (Reynolds JF, Stafford Smith DM, eds.) Global Desertification: Do Humans Cause Deserts?. Report of the 88th Dahlem Workshop, Dahlem University Press, Berlin, pp. 23–40.
Rotstayn LD, Cai W, Dix MR, Farquhar GD, Feng Y, Ginoux P, Herzog M, Ito A, Penner JE, Roderick ML, Wang M (2006) Have Australian Rainfall and Cloudiness increased due to the Remote Effects of Asian Anthropogenic Aerosols? J Geophys Res 83p. DOI:10.1029.
Smith I (2004) An assessment of recent trends in Australian rainfall, Aust Meteorol Mag 53:163–173.
Stone RC, Hammer GL, Marcussen T (1996) Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. Nature 384: 252–255.
Syktus J (2005) Reasons for decline in eastern Australia’s rainfall. B Am Meteorol Soc 86:624.
Syktus J, McKeon G, Flood N, Smith I, Goddard L (2003) Evaluation of a dynamical seasonal climate forecast system for Queensland. In: (Stone R, Partridge I eds.) Science for Drought, Proceedings of the National Drought Forum, Brisbane, April 2003. Queensland Department of Primary Industries, pp. 160–173.
Vecchi GA, Soden BJ, Wittenberg AT, Held IM, Leetmaa A, Harrison MJ (2005) Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature: 441:73–76.
Walker BH, Abel N, Stafford Smith DM, Langridge J (2002) A framework for the determinants of degradation in arid ecosystems. In: (Reynolds JF, Stafford Smith DM eds.) Global Desertification: Do Humans Cause Deserts? Report of the 88th Dahlem Workshop, Dahlem University Press, Berlin, pp. 75–94.
Watkins AB (2005) The Australian Drought of 2005. WMO Bull 54:156–162.
White WB, McKeon GM, Syktus JI (2003) Australian Drought: The Interference of Multispectral Global Standing Modes and Travelling Waves. Int J Climatol 23: 631–662.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2007 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Henry, B., McKeon, G., Syktus, J., Carter, J., Day, K., Rayner, D. (2007). Climate Variability, Climate Change and Land Degradation. In: Sivakumar, M.V.K., Ndiang’ui, N. (eds) Climate and Land Degradation. Environmental Science and Engineering. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-72438-4_11
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-72438-4_11
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-72437-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-72438-4
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)