Advertisement

The Impact of Demographic Change on Fiscal Policy in Germany

  • Helmut Seitz
Chapter

Abstract

A major concern in the political and scientific discussion is the impact of demographic change on the social security system and on public finances in general. Because in Germany the aging process is one of the most rapid in the industrialized world and the fiscal stance of public budgets deteriorated significantly in recent years, this issue is of special relevance for Germany.

Keywords

Fiscal Policy Demographic Change Social Security System Expenditure Growth Revenue Growth 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Bach S, Bork C, Krimmer P, Raffelhüschen B, Schulz E (2002) Demographischer Wandel und Steueraufkommen. Report prepared for the Federal Ministry of Finance. DIW Materialien No 20, BerlinGoogle Scholar
  2. Blanchard OJ (1990) Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators. OECD Economics Department Working Paper No 79. ParisGoogle Scholar
  3. Blanchard OJ, Chouraqui JC, Hagemann RP, Sartor N (1990) The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Answers to an Old Question. OECD Econ Stud 15:7–36Google Scholar
  4. Börsch-Supan A (2000) A model under siege: A case study of the German retirement insurance system. Economic Journal 110:F24–F45CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Conference Board of Canada (2002) Fiscal prospects for the federal and provincial/territorial governments: Economic performance and trends. Conference Board of Canada, Ottawa, ONGoogle Scholar
  6. Disney R (2007) Population ageing and the size of the welfare state: Is there a puzzle to explain? European Journal of Political Economy 23:542–553CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Economic Policy Committee and European Commission (2006) The impact of aging on public expenditure: Projections for the EU-25 member states on pension, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers (2004–2050). European Economy, Special Report No 1/2006. European Commission, DG ECFIN, BrusselsGoogle Scholar
  8. Federal Ministry of the Interior (2005) Dritter Versorgungsbericht der Bundesregierung. BMI, BerlinGoogle Scholar
  9. Fernandez R, Rogerson R (2001) The determinants of public education expenditures: Longer-run evidence from the States. Journal of Education Finance 27:567–584Google Scholar
  10. Franco D, Munzi T (1997) Ageing and fiscal policies in the European Union. In: European Commission, DG ECFIN (ed) The welfare state in Europe: Challenges and reforms. European Economy, Reports and Studies No 4, pp 239–388Google Scholar
  11. Gradstein M, Kaganovich M (2004) Aging population and education finance. Journal of Public Economics 88:2469–2485CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Grob U, Wolter SC (2005) Demographic change and public education spending — A conflict between young and old? CESifo Working Paper No 1555Google Scholar
  13. Gruber J, Wise D (2001) An international perspective on policies for an aging society. NBER Working Paper No 8103Google Scholar
  14. Hagemann RP, Nicoletti G (1989) Population ageing: Economic effects and some policy implications for financing public pensions. OECD Econ Stud 12:51–96Google Scholar
  15. Kempkes G (2007) Rapid demographic change and the allocation of public education resources. Manuscript, Dresden University of TechnologyGoogle Scholar
  16. Lee R, Edwards R (2001) The fiscal impact of population change. In Little JS, Triest RK (eds) Seismic shifts: The economic impact of demographic change. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series No 46, pp 220–237Google Scholar
  17. Poterba JM (1997) Demographic structure and the political economy of public education. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 16:48–66CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Razin A, Sadka E, Swagel P (2002) The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State. Journal of Political Economy 110:900–918CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Seitz H (1999) Subnational Government Bailouts in Germany. Inter-American Development Bank, Working paper No R-396Google Scholar
  20. Seitz H (2003) Die Leistungen der neuen Länder im Rahmen des AAÜG — Bestimmungsgründe und Belastungsdynamik. Studie im Auftrag der Länder Berlin, Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt und ThüringenGoogle Scholar
  21. Seitz H (2006) Zur Quantifizierung des „Korb 2“ im Rahmen des Solidarpakts II. Ifo Dresden berichtet 5:24–30Google Scholar
  22. Seitz H, Kempkes G (2007) Fiscal Federalism and Demography, in: Public Finance Review 35:385–413CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Seitz H, Baum B (2003) Demographie und öffentliche Bildungsausgaben in Deutschland: Eine empirische Untersuchung für die westdeutschen Flächenländer. Vierteljahreshefte für Wirtschaftsforschung 72:205–219CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Seitz H, Kurz C (1999) Arbeitslosigkeit, Zuwanderungen und Sozialhilfe: Eine Analyse der Determinanten und der Finanzierung der Sozialhilfeausgaben. Finanzarchiv 56:518–555Google Scholar
  25. Werding M, Kaltschütz A (2005) Modellrechnungen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen. Ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 17. Ifo Institute, MunichGoogle Scholar
  26. Werding M (2007) Social Insurance: How to Pay for Pensions and Health Care? In: Hamm I, Seitz H, Werding M (eds) Demographic Change in Germany: The Economic and Fiscal Consequences. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, pp 89–128 (this volume)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Helmut Seitz
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute for Applied Public Finances and Fiscal PolicyDresden University of TechnologyDresdenGermany

Personalised recommendations