Modelling Soil Radon Concentration for Earthquake Prediction

  • Sašo Džeroski
  • Ljupco Todorovski
  • Boris Zmazek
  • Janja Vaupotic
  • Ivan Kobal
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 2843)


We use regression/model trees to build predictive models for radon concentration in soil gas on the basis of environmental data, i.e., barometric pressure, soil temperature, air temperature and rainfall. We build model trees (one per station) for three stations in the Krško basin, Slovenia. The trees predict radon concentration with a (cross-validated) correlation of 0.8, provided radon is influenced only by environmental parameters (and not seismic activity). In periods with seismic activity, however, this correlation is much lower. The increase in prediction error appears a week before earthquakes with local magnitude 0.8 to 3.3.


Root Mean Square Error Seismic Activity Regression Tree Radon Concentration Thermal Water 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Sašo Džeroski
    • 1
  • Ljupco Todorovski
    • 1
  • Boris Zmazek
    • 1
  • Janja Vaupotic
    • 1
  • Ivan Kobal
    • 1
  1. 1.Jožef Stefan InstituteLjubljanaSlovenia

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