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The GGE Threat: Facing and Coping with Global Geophysical Events

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Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society

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Abstract

The threat posed to our planet and our civilization by future comet and asteroid impacts (CAIs) is now widely recognized and is becoming increasingly well constrained. Recent studies have provided tighter estimates of the numbers of potentially-threatening objects, particularly within the near-Earth space (Near Earth Object Science Definition Team 2003), better approximations of likely frequencies of collision with objects of various diameters (e.g. Chapman 2004), and a more realistic appreciation of the effects of CAIs on society and the environment (e.g. Toon et al. 1997; Morrison et al. 2004). In this regard, the hazard and risk associated with CAIs are now far better comprehended than those linked with other geological and geophysical phenomena capable of affecting the entire planet or impinging in some detrimental way upon the global community. Such global geophysical events (GGEs) form a compendium of low frequency-high magnitude phenomena of which CAIs are just a single element. While far less well understood, and therefore scientifically much more controversial, terrestrial GGEs currently appear at least as hazardous as impacts of kilometer-sized and larger bolides, and to have frequencies that are considerably shorter than CAIs capable of comparable levels of destruction and disruption (Tables 6.1 and 6.2). A miniscule glimpse of this capability was provided by the December 26, 2004 Asian earthquake and tsunami, which claimed an estimated 250 000 lives (including 100 000 children), destroyed close to half a million buildings, and led to eight million people being made homeless, impoverished, displaced or unemployed.

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  1. Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK

    W. J. McGuire

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  1. W. J. McGuire
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  1. Geological Survey of Canada Landslides and Geotechnics ESS/GSC-CNCB/GSC-NC/EDS, Natural Resources Canada, 601 Booth Street, K1A 0E8, Ottawa, ON, Canada

    Peter T. Bobrowsky

  2. Uppsala Astronomical Observatory, Box 515, SE-751 20, Uppsala, Sweden

    Hans Rickman

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McGuire, W.J. (2007). The GGE Threat: Facing and Coping with Global Geophysical Events. In: Bobrowsky, P.T., Rickman, H. (eds) Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-32711-0_6

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