Abstract
There is ample evidence that the increase in total life expectancy does not necessarily lead to an increase in expected years of healthy life (e.g., see Hoffmann/Nachtmann, Chapter 9 in this proceedings). However, there is general agreement that the prevalence of severe disability has been decreasing, with a shift towards moderate disability (for a review see Christensen et al. 2009). Nevertheless, projections of future care need often neglect health improvements and apply constant prevalences of disability to demonstrate the effect of population ageing, or assume a hypothetical decrease that is not based on empirical evidence (Doblhammer/Ziegler. 2006, Rothgang/Vogler 1997, Rothgang 2002, Schulz et al. 2001).
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Unger, R. (2010). Cohort Trends in Disability and Future Care Need in Germany. In: Doblhammer, G., Scholz, R. (eds) Ageing, Care Need and Quality of Life. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-92335-2_5
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