Critical Paths to Sustainability: The Research Challenge from Island Urban Systems

Abstract

Island systems present a singular opportunity for understanding processes of human development and for exploring the conditions that can make such processes sustainable. In this chapter, I attempt to summarize many of the points made throughout this book to provide a methodology for achieving sustainable development in island systems, such as the Galapagos. The methodology proposed relies on the construction of a comprehensive input-output matrix for an island, coupled to a detailed, spatiotemporally explicit model of resource use and human occupation. This matrix maps inputs to outputs such as economic activity, migration, and pollution, via internal causal processes in human settlements. At each step – inputs, outputs, and internal processes – the variables involved are observable and measurable, supporting a process of continuous improvement in data collection and modeling. Such a systems-level model can then be used to explore ways to eliminate adverse outputs while supporting human and natural development and biodiversity, in an empirically transparent and testable way. I discuss some of the challenges and trade-offs in the construction of these models as the basis for a general strategy for achieving sustainability in island systems.