Regression, Classification and Ensemble Machine Learning Approaches to Forecasting Clinical Outcomes in Ischemic Stroke

  • Ahmedul Kabir
  • Carolina RuizEmail author
  • Sergio A. Alvarez
  • Majaz Moonis
Conference paper
Part of the Communications in Computer and Information Science book series (CCIS, volume 881)


We applied different machine learning approaches to predict (forecast) the clinical outcome, measured by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score, of ischemic stroke patients 90 days after stroke. Regression, multinomial classification, and ordinal regression tasks were considered. M5 model trees followed by bootstrap aggregating as a meta-learning technique produced the best regression results. The same regression technique when used for classification after discretization of the target attribute also performed better than regular multinomial classification. For the ordinal regression task, the logit link function (ordinal logistic regression) outperformed the alternatives. We discuss the methodology used, and compare the results with other standard predictive techniques. We also analyze the results to provide insights into the factors that affect stroke outcomes.


Ischemic stroke mRS score M5 model tree Bootstrap aggregating Ordinal regression 



The authors thank Prof. Dr. Klaus Brinker for suggesting using ordinal regression as an additional technique in this research.


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ahmedul Kabir
    • 1
  • Carolina Ruiz
    • 1
    Email author
  • Sergio A. Alvarez
    • 2
  • Majaz Moonis
    • 3
  1. 1.Worcester Polytechnic InstituteWorcesterUSA
  2. 2.Boston CollegeChestnut HillUSA
  3. 3.University Massachusetts Medical SchoolWorcesterUSA

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