COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF “DISEASE X”
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IN THE PREVIOUS CHAPTERS, we have discussed only a few of the pathogens that pose a public health risk because of their epidemic potential. This list is in fact very long and also includes mosquito and other vector-borne diseases such as Zika and yellow fever, which require the modeling of the vector population along with humans. Furthermore, most priority lists for epidemic threats consider the so-called Disease X, i.e., the emergence of a future unknown pathogen with novel etiological characteristics and transmission mechanisms. The scenarios we have provided are therefore only a small fraction of the virtually infinite epidemic evolutions that might account for most known disease dynamics and the broad Disease X template.
In principle it is possible to imagine the creation of a database of potential epidemic evolutions that scans the parameter space defining general Disease Xfeatures. Besides the disease parameters, such a database should contain different initial conditions, both...