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Climate Change Risks in Brazil pp 181–200Cite as

Increase Risk of Drought in the Semiarid Lands of Northeast Brazil Due to Regional Warming above 4 °C

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Abstract

Although semiarid vegetation is usually resistant and highly resilient to water deficits, vegetation activity in semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) is highly controlled by interannual variations in water availability and decrease in water availability may trigger land degradation and desertification. Recurrent droughts conditions in semiarid regions, such as NEB, can produce a progressive loss of resilience that affects negatively vulnerable populations living from small-scale agriculture. The drought affecting this region continuously during the last 7 years shows an intensity and impact not seen in several decades in the regional economy and society, and represents an example oh what could happen in NEB in the future. In sum, regional warming above 4 °C is likely to increase the drought risk in Northeast Brazil, with increase temperature and decrease precipitation resulting in lower vegetal productivity and more unpredictable harvests. In municipalities, where smallholder livelihoods are not very diversified and are dominated by subsistence agriculture, even a moderate drought (as in 2012–13) can cause a decline in harvests; and, with an increased drought risk (as the future projections), the harvest scenario can still be worse and devastating for regional and national food security and economy. Therefore, there is an urgent need for proactive drought management and preparedness strategies as well as integrated assessments considering the synergy of impacts and limits to adaptation in multiple sectors and regions in a 4 °C warming for NEB.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São Paulo, Brazil

    Jose A. Marengo, Ana Paula Cunha, Wagner R. Soares, Roger R. Torres, Lincoln M. Alves, Sheila S. de Barros Brito, Luz A. Cuartas, Karinne Leal, Germano Ribeiro Neto & Regina C. S. Alvalá

  2. Center for Strategic Studies, CGEE, 70308-200, Brasilia, Brazil

    Antonio R. Magalhaes

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  1. Jose A. Marengo
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Correspondence to Jose A. Marengo .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. CEMADEN, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil

    Carlos A. Nobre

  2. Early Warning Natural Disasters, Km 40, Natl Ctr for Monitoring, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil

    Jose A. Marengo

  3. Cemaden, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil

    Wagner R. Soares

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Marengo, J.A. et al. (2019). Increase Risk of Drought in the Semiarid Lands of Northeast Brazil Due to Regional Warming above 4 °C. In: Nobre, C., Marengo, J., Soares, W. (eds) Climate Change Risks in Brazil. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92881-4_7

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