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Analysis of Short-Term Changes in Health Spending in CEE Countries: Creeping Trend Estimation

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Finance and Sustainability

Part of the book series: Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics ((SPBE))

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Abstract

In this study we analyse short term changes in current health care expenditures (CHCE) in Central East European countries and test the applicability of a creeping trend in a short-term CHCE forecasting. The research sample includes: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic. Data, obtained from OECD Health Data Database, covers the years 1995–2014. We employ the creeping trend method with constant segment 4. Our results show, that CHCE p.c. time series are non-stationary in all analysed countries, as well as in EU as a whole. Our study also confirms the existence of a positive relationship between CHCE and GDP but analysis of II differences suggest, that all countries face alternating periods of a slowdown or an acceleration of CHCE p.c. growth or decline. Particularly, in the period 2008–2010, there is an important slowdown of the CHCE growth. Although in a long term there is an expectation of constant increase in CHCE, in the short term CHCE are subject to significant fluctuations, responding to changes dynamics of GDP. We also confirm, that using creeping trend method as a forecasting tool, may lead to very high fitting measures with R2 close to 0.99 for each of selected countries.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The paper entitiled “GDP growth versus health care spending – is there any tendency?” presented during 20th International Scientific Conference “Enterprise and Competitive Environment”, March 9–10, 2017, Brno, Czech Republic

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Management, Informatics and Finance, Department of Corporate Finance and Public Finance, Wroclaw University of Economics, Wrocław, Poland

    Rafał Siedlecki & Agnieszka Bem

  2. Faculty of Economic Sciences, Department of Finance, Wroclaw University of Economics, Wrocław, Poland

    Paweł Prędkiewicz

  3. Faculty of Philology and History, Jan Dlugosz University in Czestochowa, Częstochowa, Poland

    Paulina Ucieklak-Jeż

Authors
  1. Rafał Siedlecki
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  2. Agnieszka Bem
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  3. Paweł Prędkiewicz
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  4. Paulina Ucieklak-Jeż
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Agnieszka Bem .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Corporate Finance and Public Finance, Wrocław University of Economics, Wrocław, Poland

    Agnieszka Bem

  2. Corporate Finance and Public Finance, Wrocław University of Economics, Wrocław, Poland

    Karolina Daszyńska-Żygadło

  3. Department of Management, University of Economics Prague, Jindřichův Hradec, Czech Republic

    Taťána Hajdíková

  4. Department of Investments and Corporate Finance, Corvinus University of Budapest, Budapest, Hungary

    Péter Juhász

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Siedlecki, R., Bem, A., Prędkiewicz, P., Ucieklak-Jeż, P. (2018). Analysis of Short-Term Changes in Health Spending in CEE Countries: Creeping Trend Estimation. In: Bem, A., Daszyńska-Żygadło, K., Hajdíková, T., Juhász, P. (eds) Finance and Sustainability. Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92228-7_20

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