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General Conclusion to the Monograph. Mena Region and Global Transformations. Arab Spring and the Beginning of the World System Reconfiguration

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Islamism, Arab Spring, and the Future of Democracy

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Abstract

The events of the Arab Spring can be analyzed in two dimensions: first, with respect to internal and global causes and second, in terms of their influence on the future scenarios of the World System development. Such a view we use in this concluding chapter. We explain the amazing synchronization of social upheavals in a dozen of Arab countries based on the theory (developed by the authors) of the periodical catch-ups experienced by the political component of the World System that tends to lag behind the World System economic component. And such lags cannot constantly increase, the gaps are eventually bridged, but in not quite a smooth way. On the contrary, this catch-up will be rather complex and turbulent. Thus, it eventually becomes evident that the turbulent events in the Arab countries are also a precursor of the forthcoming strong structural transformations of the world. We have called this process the reconfiguration of the World System. This conclusion offers results of our analysis of such reconfiguration of the World System together with a few forecasts that stem from it. We also suggest an explanation why the new catch-up of the World System political component started in the Arab countries.

The corresponding authors for this chapter are Leonid Grinin (leonid.grinin@gmail.com), Andrey Korotayev (akorotayev@gmail.com), and Arno Tausch (arno.tausch@yahoo.de).

This chapter is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE) with in 2018 support by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project No. 17-02-00521).

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Notes

  1. 1.

    We also substantiated this approach in detail in Grinin et al. (2016b).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Research University Higher School of Economics and Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev

  2. University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

    Arno Tausch

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  1. Leonid Grinin
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  2. Andrey Korotayev
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  3. Arno Tausch
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Correspondence to Leonid Grinin .

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Grinin, L., Korotayev, A., Tausch, A. (2019). General Conclusion to the Monograph. Mena Region and Global Transformations. Arab Spring and the Beginning of the World System Reconfiguration. In: Islamism, Arab Spring, and the Future of Democracy. Perspectives on Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91077-2_12

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