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Risk Modeling of Accidents in the Power System of Ukraine with Using Bayesian Network

  • Viktor Putrenko
  • Nataliia Pashynska
Conference paper
Part of the Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing book series (AISC, volume 754)

Abstract

Current studies of impact of climatic factors on overhead power lines are limited to calculations of load of climatic factors on the overhead transmission lines, so the problem of conducting a comprehensive study of accidents probability under the influence of climatic factors is important.

The paper addresses the research of approaches to spatial risk modeling of overhead power lines accidents in the power systems of Ukraine under the influence of climatic factors. The article presents the construction of a model of accidents under the influence of climatic impacts and prediction of emergencies on based geospatial data sets. Pattern recognition techniques, namely the Bayesian network, were used to simulate accidents and verification of the results. This method is based on calculation of a posteriori probabilities of model variables. As a result, a model of accidents under the influence of climatic factors was built, which constitutes a Bayesian network with given conditional probabilities and independent variables of the model.

Keywords

Risk modeling Bayesian network Power transmission network Spatial modeling 

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Igor Sikorsky KPIKyivUkraine
  2. 2.Taras Shevchenko National University of KyivKyivUkraine

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