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Economic Cycles and Crises in New China

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Book cover Business Cycles in BRICS

Part of the book series: Societies and Political Orders in Transition ((SOCPOT))

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Abstract

China’s progress in the past 68 years is depicted as a completion of primitive capital accumulation and then procession into industrial expansion and adjustment. In its pursuit of industrialization, China has endured cyclical macroeconomic fluctuation, which is not exceptional to most industrialized countries. China has experienced ten crises since the founding of the People’s Republic.

In China’s 68-year history of industrialization, it can be observed that as a rule whenever the cost of crisis could be transferred to the rural sector, the capital-intensive urban industry sector could achieve a “soft landing,” and the existing institution could be maintained. When this did not happen, the crisis took a “hard landing” in the urban sector. Major fiscal reforms and even reforms on the economic system resulted.

From an international geopolitical perspective, this chapter endeavors to contextualize China’s “particular” historical experience in the general process of capitalist development.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Approximately USD538 billion in current prices.

  2. 2.

    New Democracy or the New Democratic Revolution is a concept based on Mao Zedong’s Bloc of Four Social Classes theory in post-revolutionary China which argued originally that democracy in China would take a decisively distinct path, much different from that of the liberalcapitalist and parliamentary democratic systems in the western world as well as Soviet-style communism in Eastern Europe. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democracy

  3. 3.

    Approximately USD26.75 billion in current prices. See Shi (1989) for details about the “43 Plans” program.

  4. 4.

    Approximately USD30.32 billion in current prices. See Shi (1989) for details.

  5. 5.

    Plot ratio is defined as the ratio between the gross floor area of a building and the area of the site on which it is erected.

  6. 6.

    “Amid Different Opinions, Premier Li Keqiang Outragedly Ordered to Bail Out the Stock Market by Force”, Hong Kong Economic Times. http://china.hket.com/article/641873

  7. 7.

    Wen Tiejun analyses the ten cyclical economic crises that China experienced since 1949 till now. Retrieved from http://our-global-u.org/oguorg/en/series-no-5-chinas-real-experiences-professor-wen-tiejun-on-ten-cyclicaleconomic-crises-in-china-1949-2016/

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Acknowledgments

This chapter is an outcome of the subproject on “International Comparative Studies on National Security in the Process of Globalization,” led by Dr. SIT Tsui, Southwest University, which is under the Major Project on “A Study of the Structure and Mechanism of Rural Governance Basic to the Comprehensive National Security” led by Professor WEN Tiejun, Renmin University of China. The major project is funded by the National Social Science Foundation of China (No. 14ZDA064).

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Appendix: Main Macroeconomic Indicators of China, 1950–2017

Appendix: Main Macroeconomic Indicators of China, 1950–2017

Fig. 1
A graph plots the percent of real G D P growth rate from 1950 to 2015. It exhibits a fluctuating trend, with a minimum value of around negative 30% in 1962.

Real GDP growth rate

Fig. 2
A graph of the percentage of change versus years ranging from 1950 to 2015. It exhibits a fluctuating curve, with a maximum value of around 25% in 1993.

CPI

Fig. 3
A graph of B n U S D versus years ranging from 1950 to 2015. It exhibits a nearly constant curve from 1950 to 1994 at 0 B n U S D, then rises to 4000 in 2013.

Foreign exchange reserves

Fig. 4
A graph plots the percentage of G D P versus the year from 1950 to 2015 for the budget balance. It depicts a fluctuating curve, with a minimum value of around negative 5% in 1960.

Budget balance of general government

Fig. 5
A graph plots the percentage of the labor force versus the year ranging from 1950 to 2015. It depicts a curve that begins in 1980, fluctuates, and then plateaus between 2005 and 2015.

Unemployment rate. Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC); State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE)

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Wen, T., Lau, K.C., Wong, E., Sit, T. (2019). Economic Cycles and Crises in New China. In: Smirnov, S., Ozyildirim, A., Picchetti, P. (eds) Business Cycles in BRICS. Societies and Political Orders in Transition. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-90017-9_8

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