Investments Decision Making on the Basis of System Dynamics

  • Galymkaiyr Mutanov
  • Marek Milosz
  • Zhanna Saxenbayeva
  • Aida KozhanovaEmail author
Part of the Studies in Computational Intelligence book series (SCI, volume 769)


The rapid increase in the volume of incoming and processed information in oil companies has led to a change not only in the automation of the process of data processing and research, but also in the intellectualization of informational and organizational processes, building and implementing effective methods and intellectual supporting technologies of decision-making. Oil companies have always paid great attention to making the scientific and reasonable decisions about the investment scale and structure in the extraction sector to enable them to minimize business risks and make high profit. According to the theories and methods of system dynamics, a dynamic model for analyzing forecasting the scale and structure of investments for the oil industry has been built and presented in this article. As well as the problem of data extraction in intellectual information systems is described. The formulated model can be applied to analyze and predict the structure and size of the investment process as a new method and provide a basis for decision-making.


System dynamics Oil company Investment Causal loop diagrams 


  1. 1.
    Migas, S.S.: Intelligent information systems, abstract of lecture. St. Petersburg (2009)Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Forrester, J.W.: Industrial dynamics: a major breakthrough for decision makers. Harv. Bus. Rev. 36(4), 37–66 (1958)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Leopold, A.: Energy related system dynamic models: a literature review. CEJOR 24(1), 231–261 (2016)MathSciNetCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Zhang, B., Wang, Q.: Analysis and forecasts of investment scale and structure in upstream sector for oil companies based on system dynamics. Pet. Sci. 8(1), 120 (2011)MathSciNetCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Forrester, J.W.: Industrial Dynamics. MIT press, Cambridge (1961)Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Sterman, J.D.: Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw, New York (2000)Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Meadows, D.: Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Earthscan (2000)Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Ford, A., Vogstad, K., Flynn, H.: Simulating price patterns for tradable green certificates to promote electricity generation from wind. Energy Policy 35(1), 91–111 (2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. 9.
    Jeong, S.-J., Kim, K.-S., Park, J.-W., Lim, D.-S., Lee, S.-M.: Economic comparison between coal-fired and liquefied natural gas combined cycle power plants considering carbon tax: Korean case. Energy 33(8), 1320–1330 (2008)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Tang, X., Zhang, B., Höök, M., Feng, L.: Forecast of oil reserves and production in Daqing oilfield of China. Energy 35(7), 3097–3102 (2010)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Li, J., Dong, X., Shangguan, J., Hook, M.: Forecasting the growth of China’s natural gas consumption. Energy 36(3), 1380–1385 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    Hosseini, S.H., Kiani, B., Mohammadi Pour, M., Ghanbari, M.: Examination of Iran’s crude oil production peak and evaluating the consequences: a system dynamics approach. Energy Explor Exploit 32(4), 673–690 (2014)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. 13.
    Bossel, H.: Modeling and Simulation. A K Peters, Ltd., Wellesley, MA (1994)CrossRefzbMATHGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    de Souza, R., Huynh, R., Chandrashekar, M., Thevenard, D.: A comparison of modelling paradigms for manufacturing line. In: IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Beijing, pp. 1253–1258 (1996)Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Hannon, B., Ruth, M.: Modeling Dynamic Systems. Springer, New York City (1997)zbMATHGoogle Scholar
  16. 16.
    Yan, G.: System Dynamics, pp. 4–30. Intellectual Press, Shanghai (1991)Google Scholar
  17. 17.
    Kathryn, M., Bartol, D., Matin C.: Management. The McGraw-Hill Companies (1998)Google Scholar
  18. 18.
    Chen, X., Yu, B., Chang, G., Gong, Y.: Research on investment size of onshore oilfield development. Oper. Res. Manag. Sci. 11(2), 122–123 (2011)Google Scholar
  19. 19.
    Zheltov, U.P.: Development of oil field. Textbook, 2nd edn. Nedra, Moscow (1998)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  • Galymkaiyr Mutanov
    • 1
  • Marek Milosz
    • 2
  • Zhanna Saxenbayeva
    • 1
  • Aida Kozhanova
    • 1
    Email author
  1. 1.Al-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityAlmatyKazakhstan
  2. 2.Lublin University of TechnologyLublinPoland

Personalised recommendations