Abstract
The authors’ reflection develops from the consideration that the growth of the world population along with the more than proportional increase in food consumption (an effect of the increase in incomes) will determine a consistent increase in cultivated products demand. It will be then necessary, at a global level, to increase the number of cultivated surfaces, and to introduce technological innovations that will allow for an increased production.
The World Population Prospects 2014 shows that the world population increase of more than 2 billion expected by 2050 will not be uniform. In fact, such increase will be more concentrated in the less developed countries, that is exactly where food demands will grow more than proportionally. This undesirable trend in population and consumption distribution represents since now a crucial issue for international actors.
The food security objective—while theoretically achievable through a significant increase in the production of cultivated products—would have dramatically negative effects on environmental equilibriums. A further, irreversible loss of biodiversity and the definite damage of the ecosystem are among such effects. The international community is still far from adopting a global strategy to deal with these issues: food security is one of the most important challenges that such community must face in the near future.
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Notes
- 1.
Cfr. Expo 2015 (2015), Guida al tema, Milano (http://www.expo2015.org/archive/it/cos-e/il-tema.html).
- 2.
- 3.
Guha-Khasnobis et al. (2007).
- 4.
Solbrig et al. (1994).
- 5.
Pollice (2013b).
- 6.
AA VV (2006).
- 7.
- 8.
The Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).
- 9.
ONU Resolution 2000/10, UN (2000).
- 10.
Porter et al. (2014).
- 11.
According to FAO evaluations, this would be one of the main reasons why bad nutrition and even hunger concerns in a higher percentage women and children.
- 12.
Tisdell (1999).
- 13.
FAO (2015).
- 14.
World Population Prospects, United Nations (2015).
- 15.
World Population Prospects, United Nations (2013).
- 16.
The population of 48 countries or areas in Europe should decrease between 2015 and 2050. In some cases, we will see a decrease in the population equal to or even higher than 15% before 2050. Among these countries are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine.
- 17.
FAO (2014).
- 18.
Pollice and Albanese (2015).
- 19.
About to the increase rates’ decrease trend of the world population, we already underlined that it showed a slowing down in the last years, to the point that the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs was obliged in 2010 to rise previous estimates. Same adjustments were made regarding consumption levels. Consequently, FAO’s conclusions are not fully convincing. First, it must be considered that if in developed countries the level of daily consumption per person is currently about 3400 Kcal—and that it is meant to increase further by 2050—it is highly possible that in developing countries, because of the rise in income levels, there will be a process of convergence towards developed countries’ consumption levels. FAO moreover underlines (FAO 2010) that a missed convergence would be because of the persistence of large—social and/or geographic—poverty fractions within single countries, surely not because of championing behaviours on the consumption ground. Conversely, it is stated that worldwide demand will not increase beyond estimates because poverty will still be widespread.
- 20.
Some data of a national scale are particularly interesting. In 7 years India’s population will surpass China’s, currently of 1.380 million compared to 1.310 million of India. By 2022, both countries will probably reach 1.4 billion people. After that, India’s population should increase to reach 1.7 billion in 2050. The population of Nigeria, at the present the seventh largest country of the world, is growing very fast to the point that it is supposed that by 2050 it will be the third largest country of the world. Also, by 2050 six out of the ten largest countries of the world could exceed 300 million: China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and United States of America.
- 21.
Sellari (2015).
- 22.
Lockie and Carpenter (2010).
- 23.
Morgan (2010).
- 24.
Steinberg (2015).
- 25.
Sen (1982).
- 26.
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Pollice, F., Albanese, V., Urso, G. (2018). Food Security: A Challenge for a Global Governance. In: Isoni, A., Troisi, M., Pierri, M. (eds) Food Diversity Between Rights, Duties and Autonomies. LITES - Legal Issues in Transdisciplinary Environmental Studies, vol 2. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75196-2_13
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