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Earthquake Hazard Modelling and Forecasting for Disaster Risk Reduction

  • Alik Ismail-Zadeh
Conference paper
Part of the Springer Natural Hazards book series (SPRINGERNAT)

Abstract

Understanding of lithosphere dynamics, tectonic stress localization, earthquake occurrences, and seismic hazards has significantly advanced during the last decades. Meanwhile despite the major advancements in geophysical sciences, yet we do not see a decline in earthquake disaster impacts and losses. Although earthquake disasters are mainly associated with significant vulnerability of society, comprehensive seismic hazards assessments and earthquake forecasting could contribute to preventive measures aimed to reduce impacts of earthquakes. Modelling of lithosphere dynamics and earthquake simulations coupled with a seismic hazard analysis can provide a better assessment of potential ground shaking due to earthquakes. This chapter discusses a quantitative approach for simulation of earthquakes due to lithosphere dynamics that allows for studying the influence of fault network properties and regional movements on seismic patterns. Results of earthquake simulations in several seismic-prone regions, such as the Vrancea region in the southeaster Carpathians, the Caucasian region, and the Tibet-Himalayan, are overviewed. A use of modelled seismicity in a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is then discussed.

Keywords

Lithospheric dynamics Faults Earthquake simulation Earthquake disasters 

Notes

Acknowledgements

The author acknowledges a support from the German Science Foundation (DFG grant IS-203/4-1).

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute of Applied Geosciences, Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyKarlsruheGermany

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