Energy System Challenges of Deep Global CO₂ Emissions Reduction Under the World Energy Council’s Scenario Framework

Abstract

In this chapter we explore the long-term energy system transformation to keep the increase of the global mean temperature well below 2 ℃ compared to pre-industrial level. Our analysis builds on the framework of the World Energy Scenarios 2016 which we complement by an additional 1.5 ℃ climate target scenario. We employ PSI’s global multi-regional MARKAL model, a technology rich bottom-up energy systems model distinguishing the global energy system into 15 regions. Our results provide the following key insights on the decarbonisation of the energy sector: (1) global combustion-related CO₂ emissions must become negative by 2060 if the climate target is to be achieved at least cost, (2) net CO₂ removal through bioenergy conversion with CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) relieves the pressure to reduce emissions in sectors with high mitigation costs, such as aviation and industry, (3) strong energy policy is needed to drive down the global energy consumption of the end-use sectors past 2030, (4) electricity is an important enabler for decarbonising energy end-uses and should be promoted along with low-carbon generation, (5) coal with and without CCS is not a long-term option in the power sector, while methane combustion equipped with CCS could complement the electricity mix which would be 85% based on renewable energy and nuclear in 2060, (6) more than half of the power generation investments need to be dedicated to wind and solar technologies in the period 2011–2060, and the electricity markets in Asia require about half of the global investments in generation equipment.