Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2 °C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development pp 155-172 | Cite as
Challenges and Opportunities for the Swiss Energy System in Meeting Stringent Climate Mitigation Targets
Abstract
In this chapter, we assess the feasibility of the Swiss commitments to mitigate climate change under the framework of the Swiss energy strategy objectives: gradual phase-out of nuclear power, energy efficiency gains and deployment of renewables. We employ an enhanced version of the Swiss TIMES energy systems model (STEM), in which the electricity grid, ancillary services markets, and variability of renewable energy are explicitly modelled. We present two main scenarios: (a) a Baseline scenario that passes through the Swiss national determined contribution (NDC); and (b) a Low Carbon scenario consistent with an emission trajectory to achieve a below 2 °C global warming. The analysis shows that moving beyond NDC requires fast and deep emissions reductions. Electrification and efficiency are the key pillars in achieving decarbonisation. New business models emerge that enable active participation of consumers in the energy supply. However, long-term and consistent price signals are needed to unlock energy savings potentials in the end-use sector. Early action and continuous policy response are necessary to avoid lock-in of emission-intensive infrastructure and stranded assets. Alignment of near-term action with longer-term technology needs and policy objectives is crucial.
Notes
Acknowledgements
The research reported in this paper was partially funded by the Competence Centre Energy and Mobility (CCEM) through the project “Integration of Stochastic renewables in the Swiss Electricity Supply System (ISCHESS)”, and by the Swiss Competence Centre for Energy Research through the project “Joint activity in Scenario and Modelling”.
References
- BAFU (2016a) Swiss greenhouse gas inventory. Swiss Federal Office For Environment—BAFU, Bern. https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/bafu/en/dokumente/klima/fachinfo-daten/kenngroessen_zurentwicklungdertreibhausgasemissioneninderschweiz.pdf.download.pdf/kenngroessen_zurentwicklungdertreibhausgasemissioneninderschweiz.pdf
- BAFU (2016b) Switzerland’s second biennial report under the UNFCCC. Federal Office for the Environment—BAFU, Bern. http://www.bafu.admin.ch/climatereporting
- Bauer C, Hirschberg S (eds), Bäuerle Y, Biollaz S, Calbry-Muzyka A, Cox B, Heck T, Lehnert M, Meier A, Schenler W, Treyer K, Vogel F, Wieckert HC, Zhang X, Zimmermann M, Burg V, Bowman G, Erni M, Saar M, Tran MQ (2017) Potentials, costs and environmental assessment of electricity generation technologies. PSI, WSL, ETHZ, EPFL, Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen. http://www.bfe.admin.ch/php/modules/publikationen/stream.php?extlang=en&name=en_854880113.pdf
- BFE (2015) Schweizerische Elektrizitätsstatistik. Bundesamt für Energie. http://www.bfe.admin.ch/themen/00526/00541/00542/00630/index.html?lang=de&dossier_id=00765
- BFE (2017) Energy strategy 2050 after the popular vote. Bundesamt für Energie (BFE). http://www.bfe.admin.ch/php/modules/publikationen/stream.php?extlang=en&name=en_210755710.pdf&endung=Energy%20Strategy%202050%20after%20the%20Popular%20Vote
- Bretschger L, Zhang L (2017) Nuclear phase-out under stringent climate policies: a dynamic macroeconomic analysis. Energy J 38. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.38.1.lbre
- Daly HE, Ramea K, Chiodi A, Yeh S, Gargiulo M, Ó Gallachóir B (2015) Modal shift of passenger transport in a TIMES model: application to Ireland and California. In: Giannakidis G, Labriet M, Ó Gallachóir B, Tosato G (eds) Informing energy and climate policies using energy systems models: insights from scenario analysis increasing the evidence base. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp 279–291. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-16540-0_16
- EC (2017) Building up the future. Final report of special group on advanced biofuels to the sustainable transport forum. European Commission, BrusselsGoogle Scholar
- Ecoplan (2012) Energiestrategie 2050 - volkswirtschaftliche Auswirkungen. Bundesamt für Energie. https://www.newsd.admin.ch/newsd/message/attachments/35780.pdf
- Fuchs A, Demiray T, Panos E, Kannan R, Kober T, Bauer C, Schenler W, Burgherr P, Hirschberg S (2017) ISCHESS—integration of stochastic renewables in the Swiss electricity supply system. ETH Zurich—Research Center for Energy Networks. PSI—Laboratory for energy systems analysis. https://www.psi.ch/lea/HomeEN/Final-Report-ISCHESS-Project.pdf
- IEA (2016) Energy technology perspectives 2016. International Energy Agency, Paris. http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/ETP2016SUM.pdf
- IEA (2017) Energy technology perspectives 2017. International Energy Agency, Paris. https://www.iea.org/etp2017/
- Kannan R, Turton H (2014) Switzerland energy transition scenarios—development and application of the Swiss TIMES energy system model (STEM)Google Scholar
- Kannan R, Turton H (2016) Long term climate change mitigation goals under the nuclear phase out policy: the Swiss energy system transition. Energy Econ 55:211–222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.02.003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Kypreos S (1999) Assessment of CO2 reduction policies for Switzerland. Int J Global Energy Issues 12:233–243. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGEI.1999.000836CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Lehtilä A, Giannakidis G (2013) TIMES grid modeling features. IEA—Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP). http://iea-etsap.org/docs/TIMES-RLDC-Documentation.pdf
- Lehtilä A, Noble K (2011) TIMES early retirement capacity. IEA—ETSAP. http://iea-etsap.org/docs/TIMES-Early-Retirement-of-Capacity.pdf
- Lehtilä A, Giannakidis G, Tigas K (2014) Residual load curves in TIMES. IEA—Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP). http://iea-etsap.org/docs/TIMES-RLDC-Documentation.pdf
- Marcucci A, Turton H (2012) Swiss energy strategies under global climate change and nuclear policy uncertainty. Swiss J Econ Stat (SJES) 148:317–345. https://ideas.repec.org/a/ses/arsjes/2012-ii-8.html
- Mathys N, Justen A (2016) Perspektiven des Schweizerischen Personen- und Güterverkehrs bis 2040. Hauptbericht Bundesamt für Raumentwicklung (ARE). https://www.are.admin.ch/dam/are/de/dokumente/verkehr/publikationen/Verkehrsperspektiven_2040_Hauptbericht.pdf.download.pdf/Verkehrsperspektiven_2040_Hauptbericht.pdf
- Millar RJ, Fuglestvedt JS, Friedlingstein P, Rogelj J, Grubb MJ, Matthews HD, Skeie RB, Forster PM, Frame DJ, Allen MR (2017) Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Nat Geosci 10:741 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3031. https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3031#supplementary-information
- Osorio S, van Ackere A (2016) From nuclear phase-out to renewable energies in the Swiss electricity market. Energy Policy 93:8–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.043CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Panos E, Kannan R (2016) The role of domestic biomass in electricity, heat and grid balancing markets in Switzerland. Energy 112:1120–1138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.06.107
- Panos E, Lehtilä A (2016) Dispatching and unit commitment features in TIMES. International Energy Agency—Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP). https://iea-etsap.org/docs/TIMES_Dispatching_Documentation.pdf
- Pattupara R, Kannan R (2016) Alternative low-carbon electricity pathways in Switzerland and it’s neighbouring countries under a nuclear phase-out scenario. Appl Energy 172:152–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.03.084CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Prognos AG (2012) Die Energieperspektiven für die Schweiz bis 2050 (The energy perspectives for Switzerland until 2050). Bundesamt für Energie (BFE). http://www.bfe.admin.ch/php/modules/publikationen/stream.php?extlang=de&name=de_564869151.pdf
- Schlecht I, Weigt H (2014) Swissmod: a model of the Swiss electricity market. FoNEW discussion paper 2014/01Google Scholar
- Schulz TF, Kypreos S, Barreto L, Wokaun A (2008) Intermediate steps towards the 2000 W society in Switzerland: an energy–economic scenario analysis. Energy Policy 36:1303–1317. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.12.006CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Stauffacher M, Muggli N, Scolobig A, Moser C (2015) Framing deep geothermal energy in mass media: the case of Switzerland. Technol Forecast Soc Change 98:60–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.05.018CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Steubing B, Zah R, Waeger P, Ludwig C (2010) Bioenergy in Switzerland: assessing the domestic sustainable biomass potential. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 14:2256–2265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2010.03.036CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Stiglitz J, Stern N, Duan M, Edenhofer O, Gireaud G, Heal G, la Rovere E, Morris A, Moyer E, Pangestu M, Shukla P, Sokona Y, Winkler H (2017) Report of the high-level commission on carbon Prices. World Bank. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/54ff9c5ce4b0a53decccfb4c/t/59244eed17bffc0ac256cf16/1495551740633/CarbonPricing_Final_May29.pdf
- Sutter D, Werner M, Zappone A, Mazzotti M (2013) Developing CCS into a realistic option in a country’s energy strategy. Energy Procedia 37:6562–6570. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2013.06.588CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- UN (2017a) Sustainable development goals. United Nations. http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/
- UN (2017b) World population prospects: the 2017 revision. DVD edn. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/
- UNFCCC (2015) Switzerland’s intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) and clarifying information. UNFCCC. http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx. Accessed 21.02.2015
- von Kupsch B (2015) Bericht zum Strategischen Netz 2025 (Technical report on the “Strategic Grid 2025”). Swissgrid AG. https://www.swissgrid.ch/dam/swissgrid/company/publications/de/sn2025_technischer_bericht_de.pdf
- Weidmann N, Kannan R, Turton H (2012) Swiss climate change and nuclear policy: a comparative analysis using an energy system approach and a sectoral electricity model. Swiss J Econ Stat (SJES) 148:275–316. https://ideas.repec.org/a/ses/arsjes/2012-ii-7.html
- Welsch M, Howells M, Hesamzadeh MR, Ó Gallachóir B, Deane P, Strachan N, Bazilian M, Kammen DM, Jones L, Strbac G, Rogner H (2015) Supporting security and adequacy in future energy systems: the need to enhance long-term energy system models to better treat issues related to variability. Int J Energy Res 39:377–396. https://doi.org/10.1002/er.3250
- Zuberi MJS, Patel MK (2017) Bottom-up analysis of energy efficiency improvement and CO2 emission reduction potentials in the Swiss cement industry. J Clean Prod 142:4294–4309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.178CrossRefGoogle Scholar