A New Method to Tackle the Duration Risks of a Construction Project
The most well-known traditional approach to deal with the uncertainties of the activity durations in a project was the Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). PERT is however impractical and seldom adopted in the construction projects due to the unreliable estimation based on the three-point durations. This paper proposes a new approach to tackle the risks with the activity durations by evaluating the seven constraints associated with different required construction resources. A quantitative model considering the seven risk-levels of activity duration is proposed. A risk-based critical path scheduling method (R-CPSM) is developed. A tennis court construction project is selected as an example for implementation of the proposed R-CPSM to demonstrate its applicability. It is found that the proposed R-CPSM replaces the lump-sum uncertain duration estimation of the traditional PERT with a systematic method that considers the 7-risk-level resource constraints, which tackles duration risks more appropriately. Moreover, it also provides a real-time risk updating mechanism that is lacked in the traditional PERT. As a result, it is concluded that the proposed R-CPSM has a potential to improve the management of duration risks in a construction project.
KeywordsProject time management Risk management Scheduling Critical path method Activity duration estimation
This research project was funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan, under project No. MOST 105-2221-E-324-025-MY2. Sincere appreciations are given to the sponsor by the authors.
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