Long-Term Trends in Croatian GDP Growth
We analyze the long-term trends in Croatian income convergence with respect to the EU. Croatia is the worst performer among new EU members in terms of β-convergence. Stochastic income convergence tests with breaks suggest Croatia is not able to catch up to old EU members, but could still diminish the difference between Croatian and new EU members’ income levels over the long term. Analysis of Croatian gross domestic product (GDP) and gross value added (GVA) growth drivers suggests services-led growth fueled by investments in nontradable sector and government consumption contributed to the observed income divergence as new EU members grew faster, dominantly drawing from the personal consumption, international trade and manufacturing growth. Deindustrialization and technological downgrading of the tradable sector also contributed to slower GDP growth in the observed period.
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