Skip to main content

The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Investor Purchase Decision: The Case Study of HOSE

  • 1987 Accesses

Part of the Studies in Computational Intelligence book series (SCI,volume 760)

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to examine how macroeconomic factors affect investors purchase decision based on the volatile trading value of VN-index in the Ho Chi Minh Stock exchange.

Methodology: This study applies the quantitative approach as the major method. The quantitative analysis of this research will conduct by using R-software and SPSS with statistical technique including simple time series analysis, stationary testing parameters, model specification, and binary logistic regression analysis. The study uses the secondary data collected online from the period of 2008 to 2015. Specifically, this paper uses a total of 84 data points which are plenty for the effective regression analysis. This study attempts to provide the better understanding of investors’ behavior under effect of macroeconomic factors.

Findings: All measurement parameters in this study demonstrate as stationary factors and macroeconomic factors show the significant effects on investor purchase decision with regard to Inflation rate, Crude oil price, and Exchange rate. As a result, this research indicates the result of binary regression model related to the odd ratio equation and the level of accurate prediction of the model.

Value: There are various studies carried out to examine the macroeconomic effects on investor purchase decision, but very few of them observed the said effects with the empirical approach. For this reason, this study applies the new method of binary logistic regression in order to calculate the proportion of purchase decision.

Keywords

  • Investor purchase decision
  • Macroeconomic effect
  • Stock exchange market
  • HOSE
  • Vietnam

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-73150-6_72
  • Chapter length: 15 pages
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
eBook
USD   229.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • ISBN: 978-3-319-73150-6
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
Softcover Book
USD   299.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Hardcover Book
USD   399.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Fig. 1.

References

  • Akaike, H.: Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In: Petrov, B.N., Csaki, F. (eds.) Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory, Budapest Akademiai Kiado, pp. 267–281 (1973)

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhunia, A.: The shock of the shock of crude price, stock price and selected macro-economic variables on the growth of Indian economy. Sumedha J. Manag. 1(2), 82–89 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  • Charles, A., Kasilingam, R.: Does market sentiments influence investor’s investment decisions? Anvesha 7(3), 24–33 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  • Cox, D.R.: Regression models and life tables. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B 34(2), 187–220 (1972)

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Daniel, K., Hirshleifer, D., Subrahmanyam, A.: Investor psychology and security market under- and overreactions. J. Financ. 53, 1839–1885 (1998)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A.: Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica 49(4), 1057–1072 (1981)

    Google Scholar 

  • Fifeková, E., Nemcová, E.: Impact of FDI on economic growth: evidence from V4 countries. Periodica Polytechnica 23(1), 7–14 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  • Elliott, K.: An empirical identification of an appropriate inflation definition and an inflation-targeting monetary policy (Order No. 3251363). Available from ProQuest Central (304767934) (2007). https://search.proquest.com/docview/304767934?accountid=63189

  • El-Masry, A.: The Exchange Rate Exposure of UK Nonfinancial Companies: Industry-Level Analysis. Social Science Research Network, Rochester (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  • Engel, R.F., Granger, C.W.J.: Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimating and testing. Econometric 55, 251–276 (1987)

    MathSciNet  CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Gujarati, D.N.: Basic Econometrics, 4th Economy edn. Tata McGraw-Hill Publishing Ltd., New Delhi (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hardouvelis, G.A.: Macroeconomic information and stock prices. J. Econ. Bus. 39(2), 131 (1987)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Hondroyiannis, G., Papapetrou, E.: Macroeconomic influences on the stock market. J. Econ. Financ. 25(1), 33–49 (2001)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Johansen, S., Juselius, K.: Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bull. Econ. Stat. 52(2), 169–210 (1990)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Joseph, N.L.: Modelling the impacts of interest rate and exchange rate changes on UK stock returns. Deriv. Use Trading Regul. 7(4), 306–323 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  • Kieu, N.M.D., Nguyen, V., Tam, L.H.N.: (2013). http://tapchitaichinh.vn/nghien-cuu–trao-doi/trao-doi-binh-luan/cac-yeu-to-kinh-te-vi-mo-va-bien-dong-cua-thi-truong-chung-khoan-viet-nam-39026.html. Accessed Sept 2015

  • Kim, K., Nofsinger, J.: Behavioral finance in Asia. Pac.-Basin Financ. J. 16(1–2), 1–7 (2008)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Kleinbaum, D.G., Klein, M.: Logistic Regression-A Self-learning Text, 2nd edn. Springer Science and Business Media, Heidelberg (2002)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Malcolm, B., Jeffrey, W.: Investor sentiment in the stock market. J. Econ. Perspect. 21, 129–151 (2007)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Phan, K.C., Zhou, J.: Market efficiency in emerging stock markets: a case study of the Vietnamese stock market. IOSR J. Bus. Manag. 16(4), 61–73 (2014)

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Phillips, P.C.B., Perron, P.: Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 75(2), 335–346 (1988). Oxford University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Quan, V.D.H., Cong, B.C.: (2016). http://tapchitaichinh.vn/nghien-cuu-trao-doi/nghien-cuu-dieu-tra/yeu-to-and-huong-den-quyet-dinh-cua-nha-dau-tu-chung-khoan-86193.html. Accessed Sept 2016

  • Ray, S.: Testing granger causal relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock price behavior: evidence from India. Adv. Appl. Econ. Financ. 3(1), 470–481 (2012). http://worldsciencepublisher.org/journals/index.php/AAEF/issue/view/79

    Google Scholar 

  • Saari, M.Y., Puasa, A.F., Hassan, K.H.: The impact of world crude oil price changes on the Malaysian economy: an input-output analysis. Malays. J. Econ. Stud. 44(1), 1–12 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, G.W.: The Missing Links: Better Measures of Inflation and Inflation Expectations in Canada. Commentary - C.D. Howe Institute (287), 0_1, 0_2, pp. 1–19. C.D. Howe Institute, Toronto (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  • Suthar, M.H.: Understanding exchange rate expectations in India. IUP J. Appl. Econ. 9(1), 106–126 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  • Thuy, T.T.T., Duong, V.T.T.: Sự tác động của các nhân tố kinh tế vĩ mô đến các chỉ số giá cổ phiếu tại HOSE. Tạp chí nghiên cứu và trao đổi, Đại Học Kinh Tế, số 24, trang 34 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Pham Van Kien .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

Copyright information

© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG

About this paper

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Tung, T.A., Van Kien, P., Phong, H.T. (2018). The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Investor Purchase Decision: The Case Study of HOSE. In: Anh, L., Dong, L., Kreinovich, V., Thach, N. (eds) Econometrics for Financial Applications. ECONVN 2018. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 760. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73150-6_72

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73150-6_72

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-73149-0

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-73150-6

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)