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The Effect of Uncertainty and Quality Perception on the Usage of Forecasting Tools – A Game Based Analysis

  • Richard Lackes
  • Markus SiepermannEmail author
  • Georg Vetter
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 10653)

Abstract

Forecasting tools are used in many areas of application to improve the decision making. But often, decision makers do not follow the forecast. This behavior is only desirable in situations when the forecast is faulty or does not consider all information. Otherwise, it bears suboptimal decisions. This paper investigates under which circumstances decision makers rely on or discard forecasts. In particular, the degree of uncertainty is in the focus. Results show that the more uncertain the decision situation is, the more a decision maker relies on the forecast if it contradicts his own estimation. The more the situation seems to be clear, the more he relies on his own estimation. Then, a faulty forecast can even confirm the decision maker to opt for a wrong decision.

Keywords

Decision making Forecast Forecast quality Uncertainty 

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Technische Universität DortmundDortmundGermany

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