Abstract
Maize is a grain of great importance for Mexican food; and along with barley and its industrial applications represent two crops economically important for the country. With climate change scenarios, distribution and yields of grains could be affected, putting the food security of much of the population at risk. In this work, potential yields of maize and barley were modeled with climate change scenarios and two adaptation actions were evaluated. In order to model yields, the AquaCrop FAO model was used. This model has a water approach and has been widely used in Mexico. Two study cases were chosen and their climate, soil, phenological and management information was compiled. Baseline models were calibrated using four concordance indexes. Once calibrated, we tested the response of yields to 28 climate change scenarios; considering five General Circulation Models, two RCP and three time horizons. Two adaptation actions were evaluated: changing planting date and increase of organic mulches. Results show that yield of maize in the near future (2015–2039) would fall 50% average, while barley yields would decrease in 40%. Adaptation measure based on changing planting date was as effective as increasing mulches in both cases. Maize could gain 1 ton/ha by taking this action, while barley could gain 250 kg/ha in the place studied.
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Arce-Romero, A.R., Monterroso-Rivas, A.I., Gómez-Díaz, J.D., Palacios-Mendoza, M.A. (2018). Potential Yields of Maize and Barley with Climate Change Scenarios and Adaptive Actions in Two Sites in Mexico. In: Angelov, P., Iglesias, J., Corrales, J. (eds) Advances in Information and Communication Technologies for Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change. AACC'17 2017. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 687. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70187-5_15
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70187-5_15
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