Abstract
This paper aims to study the relationship between Indian ICT industries and GDP by applying Bayesian inference. Five yearly predominant indexes collected during 2000–2015, including Indian GDP, fixed phone usages, mobile phone distributions, Internet servers, and broadband suppliers, are analyzed by employing the Markov-switching model (MS model) and Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) models. In addition, the Bayesian regression model is used to investigate the ICT multiplier related to Indian economic growth. The empirical results indicate that IT sectors are becoming the major role of Indian economic expansion in the forthcoming future, compared with telecommunication sectors. Moreover, the result of the ICT multiplier confirms that high technological industrial zones should be systematically enhanced continuously, in particular, research and development in cyberspace.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Archer, B. (1982). The value of multipliers and their policy implications. Tourism Management, 3(4), 236–241.
Brandt, P. T., Freeman, J. R., & Schrodt, P. A. (2011). Real time, time series forecasting of inter- and intra-state political conflict. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 28(1), 41–64.
Diniz, M., Pereira, C. A. B., & Stern, J. M. (2011). Unit roots: Bayesian significance test. Communications in Statistics – Theory and Methods, 40(23), 4200–4213.
Hamilton, J. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and business cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357–384.
Jeffreys, H. (1961). Theory of probability (3rd ed.). New York: Oxford University Press.
Koop, G., & Korobilis, D. (2009). Bayesian multivariate time series methods for empirical macroeconomics. MPRA paper no. 20125, University Library of Munich.
Long, J. R., & Plosser, I. C. (1983). Real business cycles. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 39–69.
Mallick, S. K., & Sousa, R. M. (2009). Monetary policy and economic activity in the BRICS. Working paper 27/2009, NIPE. Available: http://www.nipe.eeg.uminho.pt/Uploads/WP_2009/NIPE%20WP_27_2009.pdf, http://www.nipe.eeg.uminho.pt/Uploads/WP_2009/NIPE%20WP_27_2009.pdf
Mankiw, N. G. (1989). Real business cycles: A new Keynesian perspective. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(3), 79–90.
Moreira, R. R., Chaiboonsri, C., & Chaitip, P. (2013). Relationships between effective and expected interest rates as a transmission mechanism for monetary policy: Evidence on the Brazilian economy using MS-models and a Bayesian VAR. Procedia Economics and Finance, 5, 563–570.
Rusu, S. (2011). Tourism multiplier effect. Journal of Economics and Business Research, 1, 70–76.
Said, S. E., & Dickey, D. (1984). Testing for unit roots in autoregressive moving-average models with unknown order. Biometrika, 71, 599–607.
Sims, C. A., & Zha, T. A. (1998). Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models. International Economic Review, 39(4), 949–968.
Siriphirunphong, D., Chaiboonsri, C., & Saosaovapak, A. (2015). Thai business cycle from macroeconomic model using BVAR and MS-BVAR methods. International Journal of Social Sciences, 1(1), 452–466.
Wannapan, S., & Chaiboonsri, C. (2016). Sustainable international tourism demands of Thailand: Evidence from Chinese tourists. Proceedings paper at Actual Economy International Conference, October 2016, Bangkok, Thailand.
Zhu, Q., Zhang, Z., Li, R., Lai, K. K., Wang, S., & Chai, J. (2014). Structural analysis and total coal demand forecast in China (pp. 1–20). Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. Available: https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/612064.
Acknowledgment
The authors would like to sincerely acknowledge the National Research Council of Thailand (NRCT) for the 2016 India research grant, the Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR) for supporting accommodations and transportation costs, and Mr. Jason Petrea for the linguistic checking.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
About this paper
Cite this paper
Chaiboonsri, C., Wannapan, S., Saosaovaphak, A. (2018). Economic and Business Cycle of India: Evidence from ICT Sector. In: Tsounis, N., Vlachvei, A. (eds) Advances in Panel Data Analysis in Applied Economic Research. ICOAE 2017. Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70055-7_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70055-7_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-70054-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-70055-7
eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)