Abstract
Currently, nearly 70% of the re-entries of intact orbital objects are uncontrolled, corresponding to about 50% of the returning mass, i.e. approximately 100 metric tons per year. In 2015, 79% of the mass was concentrated in 40 upper stages and the remaining 21% mostly in about ten large spacecraft. The average mass of the sizable objects was around 2 metric tons. Predicting the re-entry time and location of an uncontrolled object remains a very tricky task, being affected by various sources of inevitable uncertainty. In spite of decades of efforts, mean relative errors of 20–30% often occur. This means that even predictions issued 3 h before re-entry may be affected by an along-track uncertainty of 40,000 km (corresponding to one full orbital path), possibly halved during the last hour if further tracking data is available. This kind of information is not much useful and manageable for civil protection applications, often resulting in confusion and misunderstandings regarding its precise meaning and relevance. Therefore, specific approaches and procedures were developed to provide understandable and unambiguous information useful for civil protection planning and applications, as shown in practice for recent re-entry prediction campaigns of significant satellites (UARS, ROSAT, Phobos-Grunt, GOCE, and Progress-M 27 M).
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Pardini, C., Anselmo, L.: Re-entry predictions for uncontrolled satellites: results and challenges. In: Ouwehand, L. (ed.) Proceedings of 6th IAASS conference “safety is not an option”, ESA SP-715 (CD-ROM). European Space Agency, Noordwijk (2013)
Anselmo, L., Pardini, C.: Computational methods for re-entry trajectories and risk assessment. Adv. Space Res. 35(7), 1343–1352 (2005)
Ailor, W., Hallman, W., Steckel, G., et al.: Analysis of reentered debris and implications for survivability modeling. In: Danesy, D. (ed.) Proceedings of the 4th European conference on space debris, ESA SP-587, pp. 539–544. ESA Publication Division, European Space Agency, Noordwijk (2005)
Klinkrad, H., Fritsche, B., Lips, T., et al.: Re-entry prediction and on-ground risk estimation. In: Klinkrad, H. (ed.) Space debris–models and risk analysis, pp. 241–288. Springer Praxis Publishing, Chichester (2006)
NASA: Process for limiting orbital debris. NASA-STD-8719.14, revision A with change 1, NASA technical standard, p. 44. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington (DC) (2012)
Anselmo, L., Pardini, C.: Satellite re-entry predictions for the Italian civil protection authorities. Acta Astronaut. 87(1), 163–181 (2013)
Pardini, C., Anselmo, L.: The uncontrolled re-entry of progress-M 27M. J. Space Safety Eng. 3(3), 117–126 (2016)
Johnson, N.: The re-entry of large orbital debris. In: Heath, G.W. (ed.) Space safety and rescue Science and technology series, vol. 96, pp. 285–293. Univelt Inc, San Diego (1997)
European Space Debris Safety and Mitigation Standard Working Group: European code of conduct for space debris mitigation. Issue 1.0, pp. 7 (2004)
ESA Space Debris Mitigation Working Group: ESA space debris mitigation compliance verification guidelines. Issue 1, European Space Agency, pp. 28 (2015)
Cole, J.K., Young, L.W., Jordan-Culler, T.: Hazards of falling debris to people, aircraft, and watercraft. Sandia Report, SAND97-0805-UC-706, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque (1997)
Nicollier, C., Gass, V. (eds.): Our space environment, opportunities, stakes and dangers. EPFL Press, Lausanne (2015)
Anselmo, L.: Risk analysis and management of the BeppoSAX re-entry. ISTI Technical Report 2003-TR-23, Pisa (2003)
Pardini, C., Anselmo, L.: Satellite re-entry prediction products for civil protection applications. In: Sgobba, T., Rongier, I. (eds.) Proceedings of the 7th IAASS conference “space safety is no accident”, pp. 453–462. Springer, Cham (2015)
Pardini, C., Anselmo, L.: GOCE re-entry predictions for the Italian civil protection authorities. In: Ouwehand, L. (ed.) Proceedings of the 5th international GOCE user workshop, ESA SP-728 (DVD). European Space Agency, Noordwijk (2015)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Pardini, C., Anselmo, L. (2018). Re-entry Predictions of Potentially Dangerous Uncontrolled Satellites: Challenges and Civil Protection Applications. In: Vasile, M., Minisci, E., Summerer, L., McGinty, P. (eds) Stardust Final Conference. Astrophysics and Space Science Proceedings, vol 52. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69956-1_16
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69956-1_16
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-69955-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-69956-1
eBook Packages: Physics and AstronomyPhysics and Astronomy (R0)