Modelling the ROI of Public Health Interventions

  • Subhash Pokhrel
  • Lesley Owen
  • Kathryn Coyle
  • Doug Coyle


The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK has published several return on investment (ROI) tools. This chapter describes in detail how economic modelling was conducted in the Tobacco Control ROI tool as an example. The tool uses a Markov-state transition model to predict the costs and health outcomes for a cohort of current smokers in a chosen area. ROI metrics included in the tool are benefit-to-cost (B–C) ratio, net present value (NPV) savings and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The tool allows the users to estimate ROI from a two-, five- and ten-year and lifetime perspective. It is important to understand the input parameters, how they were implemented in the ROI tool and the underlying key assumptions before using the tool.


Modelling Markov Return on investment ROI Cost-benefit 


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Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Subhash Pokhrel
    • 1
  • Lesley Owen
    • 2
  • Kathryn Coyle
    • 3
  • Doug Coyle
    • 4
  1. 1.Health Economics Research Group (HERG), Division of Health SciencesBrunel University LondonUxbridgeUK
  2. 2.Centre for GuidelinesNational Institute for Health and Care ExcellenceLondonUK
  3. 3.Health Economics Research Group (HERG)Brunel University LondonUxbridgeUK
  4. 4.School of Epidemiology and Public HealthUniversity of OttawaOttawaCanada

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