Abstract
The Copenhagen climate meeting was the biggest and most anticipated climate meeting in history. Since the high expectations for the meeting were not met, an extensive debate on the reasons for the failure and on those who might be culpable took place after the conference, focusing especially on China and the Danish Presidency. This chapter identifies the underlying reasons for the failure, namely procedural mistakes and excessive expectations coupled with misconceptions of great power politics. Second, the chapter analyses the lessons learnt from the failure of Copenhagen, motivated by the blame game. Two aspects are highlighted in particular: the strategic leadership role of the presidency, which is needed for the consensus-based decision-making to function and the need for high-level bilateral cooperation between the USA and China.
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Notes
- 1.
Many prominent analysts have raised these issues, one of the most influential being Victor (2011).
- 2.
The author has participated in UNFCCC meetings in Vienna (27–31 August 2007), Bali (3–14 December 2007), Bonn (2–13 June 2008), Poznan (1–12 December 2008), Bonn (2–13 June 2009), Bonn (10–14 August 2009), Barcelona (2–6 November 2009), Copenhagen (7–18 December 2009), Bonn (9–11 April 2010), Bonn (2–6 August 2010), Cancún (29 November–10 December 2010), Bonn (6–17 June 2011), Durban (28 November– 10 December 2011), Bangkok (28 August–7 September 2012), Doha (26 November–8 December 2012), Bonn (29 April–3 May 2013), Warsaw (11–22 November 2013) and Paris (30 November–12 December 2015) as an independent scholar, writer/editor for Earth Negotiations Bulletin or as a consultant. Many of the views and ideas expressed in this chapter concerning the procedural issues of the negotiations are influenced by interviews with prominent experts and a workshop that took place at the Nordic Council of Ministers in Copenhagen in 2010. These ideas have also been enriched and further developed in close correspondence with Professor Kati Kulovesi (Vihma and Kulovesi 2012).
- 3.
Four different draft versions of the Copenhagen Accord informally circulated between 5:00 PM, 18 December 2010, and were finally tabled by the COP Presidency at 2:30 AM, 19 December 2010 (on file with author).
- 4.
See the UNFCCC calendar, available at www.unfccc.int (accessed 2 February 2017).
- 5.
For evolution of the levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, see CAIT —a tool by World Resources Institute, http://cait.wri.org/ (accessed 10 November 2017).
- 6.
Indian Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh, Lok Sabha of the Indian Parliament, 21 December 2009 (transcript on file with author).
- 7.
The COP Presidency consulted bilaterally with the EU on the morning of 17 December 2009, stating that it was ‘extraordinary that the four big ones let [the G77 Chair] Sudan do the talking’ and did not use their authority to bring order to the group (transcript on file with author).
- 8.
Cancun COP President, Foreign minister Patricia Espinosa, was elected Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC in May 2016.
- 9.
See the statements of countries at the Paris meeting final plenary at the UNFCCC video archives, available at: http://unfccc.int/press/multimedia/webcasts/items/5857.php (accessed 10 November 2017).
- 10.
These occasions included Foreign Minister Fabius ’ manoeuvres in closing the technical meetings and opening the COPs in the middle of the two-week meeting—sometimes a rather difficult task—and President Holland ’s speech on Paris Agreement before the delegates had even seen the final text on the final day.
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Vihma, A. (2018). ‘First as Tragedy…’: Mistakes, Blaming and Learning at the Copenhagen Climate Conference. In: Kruck, A., Oppermann, K., Spencer, A. (eds) Political Mistakes and Policy Failures in International Relations. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68173-3_12
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