Abstract
This volume explores the geopolitics of renewables: the implications for interstate energy relations of a transition towards renewable energy. Noting the different geographic and technical characteristics of renewable energy systems vis-à-vis those of fossil fuels, it investigates specifically how these might (re)shape strategic realities and policy considerations of producer, consumer, and transit countries and energy-related patterns of cooperation and conflict between them. Focus is on contemporary developments and how they may shape the coming decades. The objective is to establish a comprehensive overview and understanding of the emerging energy game, one that puts the topic on the map and provides practical illustrations of the changes renewables bring to energy geopolitics and specific countries. To this end, a novel analytical framework is introduced that moves from geography and technology to economics and politics and developments are studied on three levels of analysis: (a) the emerging global energy game, winners and losers; (b) regional and bilateral energy relations of established and rising powers; and (c) infrastructure developments and governance responses. This introductory chapter lays the groundwork for a comprehensive overview of contemporary developments by introducing the topic and field of geopolitics of renewables, developing an analytical framework, and posing expectations on what the transition towards renewable energy most likely implies for interstate energy relations.
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Notes
- 1.
It is safe to state in this regard that since the Industrial Revolution the particular constellation of the geographic location of coal , oil , and natural gas reserves , the nature of energy demand, and infrastructure technologies has formed the specific trade patterns of regional and global energy markets and shaped a complex web of relations among energy producing, consuming, and transit states and a host of non-state actors (Amineh 2007).
- 2.
Oil and natural gas are considerably more concentrated than coal. About 61,5% of proved oil reserves originate in just five countries ((Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iran, and Iraq) and about 58% of proved natural gas reserves is located in merely four countries (Russia, Iran, Qatar and Turkmenistan) (BP 2016, 6 and 20). While 57% of global coal reserves can be found in three countries (the US, China, and Russia) (BP 2015; 2016), there are far more reserves to last us into the future and a more even distribution beyond these countries.
- 3.
These are discussed in more detail in Sect. 1.4.
- 4.
We define infrastructures as “the framework of interdependent networks and systems comprising identifiable industries, institutions (including people and procedures), and distribution capabilities that provide a reliable flow of products and services […]” (Rinaldi et al. 2001, 13, citing the US Critical Infrastructure Assurance Office (CIAO)).
- 5.
Central to this view is that infrastructures are “erected and structured around a certain technical core of physical artifacts [that are] embedded in, sustained by, and interact[ing] with comprehensive socio-historical contexts” (Ewertsson and Ingelstam 2004, 293). The obvious peculiarity of this perspective is that it does not follow an exclusively technical topology of infrastructures but considers the interaction of the integrated physical and social/ organizational networks a crucial element in determining system performance. Focus is on how technologies, actors, and rules mutually influence and continuously reconstitute each other in a co-evolving manner characterized by lock-in and path-dependency. In this light, energy infrastructure performance - commonly measured in terms of availability , affordability , and acceptability (EC 2001)—is the result of interaction between techno-operational characteristics, energy market dynamics, and institutional arrangements.
- 6.
The concept of energy security is notably hard to define, but its core dimensions are relatively clear (Winzer 2012; Sovacool and Mukherjee 2011; Chester 2010; Kruyt et al. 2009). At its narrowest, energy security is generally synonymous with security of supply at affordable prices. See for example the World Energy Council (2008, 1): energy security may be defined as “an uninterruptible supply of energy , in terms of quantities required to meet demand at affordable prices.” Such a definition relates to dimensions such as geological availability , political accessibility , economic affordability , and infrastructure resilience (or reliability and robustness ). Typical concerns relate to the finite and geographically concentrated nature of oil and gas reserves , policies of diversification of source, origin, and route, price volatility due to political instability in producer countries, and a variety of technical, human, and natural risks to infrastructure. Avoiding dependence and vulnerability are key (Percebois 2003; Gnansounou 2008). Focus is on energy supply continuity (Winzer 2012), encompassing continuity of commodity supply, continuity of service supply, and the political-economic impact of discontinuity. At its broadest, the term also includes dimensions such as environmental sustainability , social acceptability , technology development, and regulatory stability (Sovacool and Mukherjee 2011). Typical concerns are local pollution and climate change, public acceptance and equity, sufficient investments in R&D and networks, and policy (making) transparency and commitment respectively. The policy framework with which energy security should be assured is controversial. While some decision makers trust in market instruments for optimising the energy supply mix, others urge for more government intervention arguing that markets fail to ensure adequate and sustained levels of energy security (Constantini et al. 2007; Egenhofer and Legge 2001).
- 7.
Dependence refers to “the share of national energy consumption which is produced domestically vis-à-vis energy imports” (Gnansounou 2008, 3735). It is closely related to the concept of risk. “The vulnerability of a system is the degree to which that system is unable to cope with selected adverse events.” Vulnerability expresses the consequences of energy supply interruptions (Gnansounou 2008, 3735).
- 8.
In principle, one could investigate the geopolitics of renewables as isolated from that of fossil fuels . In the past, energy geopolitics has been synonymous with that of fossil fuels and was studied as isolated from renewables. In the far future, energy geopolitics may be synonymous with the geopolitics of renewables, due to lack of use of fossil fuels . It is only now, in the meantime, that the geopolitics of renewables is essentially about how the increasing use of renewables affects the current, fossil fuel dominated, energy game.
- 9.
We currently have hardly any academic research on how the geographic abundance of renewable sources will affect energy system topology and cross-border energy flows, or how decentralized generation and the generally electric nature of renewable energy transportation will pose new challenges to energy trade and security.
- 10.
The consumption of energy is left out intentionally. While the location of demand, the type of appliances, and the nature of energy use are relevant for energy geopolitics, our focus is here explicitly on renewable energy system characteristics. Investigating the implications of changes in energy demand for interstate energy relations , for example a demand shift from the global North to the global South, would in fact entail an entirely separate research effort.
- 11.
Typical things to investigate, among many others, would be national capacities for (renewable) energy generation , import dependence, access to rare materials, know-how of key technologies, manufacturing capability, infrastructure and storage options, decision rights on cross-border flows, etc.
- 12.
We distinguished between geological availability , political accessibility , economic affordability , infrastructure resilience , environmental sustainability , social accessibility , technology development, and regulatory stability as dimensions in this light.
- 13.
Sovacool and Mukherjee (2011), for example, distinguish between 5 energy security dimensions, divided into 20 components, and a staggering 320 simple and 52 complex indicators. Winzer (2012), in contrast, identifies various sources of risk (human, technical, natural), four clusters of impact measurement (continuity of commodity supply, service supply, the economy and environmental impacts), and six severity filters to distinguish levels of impact, i.e. continuity interruption.
- 14.
Different energy production technologies imply various capex and opex trade -offs. There is hence no uniform cost-curve to describe the economics of power plants. Network capacity is another factor that seriously impacts how much energy may be ‘traded’ between producers and consumers at a given point in time. Combined with demand patterns, these operational considerations have already given rise to a variety of energy markets: day ahead spot markets, long-term bilateral contracts, balancing markets, etc.
- 15.
We limit ourselves purposefully to this selection of countries. While there are more big players in global energy , e.g. Japan , Russia , Brazil , Saudi-Arabia, etc., the purpose of the volume is to showcase the most important changes that renewables bring to energy geopolitics , not to be exhaustive in terms of country scope. We did, however, want to include a distinction between established and rising powers in the energy sector to link the countries to the processes of creative destruction at the global level; how can countries utilize the transition to renewable energy to move up in the global hierarchy or to cement their position? Moreover, as Chap. 4 already focuses on current net-exporters , preference was given to net-importers for part II. This way we avoid unnecessary duplication whilst showing divergences in country approaches to renewable energy .
- 16.
This is actually similar to the way Geels (2004) writes about the landscape and niche level influencing the regime undergoing a transition . The structural global level creates the larger market setting within which countries trade and the infrastructure level captures those developments that reframe the way energy can be physically moved between countries. This leaves the countries’ bilateral - regional relations as the level where policy makers strategize to secure affordable energy given certain global market and infrastructural developments.
- 17.
It needs to be kept in mind that while renewables currently represent a source of diversification , towards the end of the energy transition (when fossil fuels are being phased out and renewables dominate the energy mix) this no longer holds true.
- 18.
Inherently, because solar and wind sources are intermittent by nature and oil and gas price instability is usually caused by specific economic and political developments.
- 19.
Wind and solar energy production is characterized by relatively high capex and very low opex per kWh. Solar panels and wind turbines operate at near zero marginal costs. In times of plenty sun or wind the market is hence flooded with extremely cheap electricity . Because of this effect, Germany experiences negative electricity prices several times a year (Nicolosi 2010). Of course, the opposite also holds: in times of little sun or wind, electricity is likely to have a higher price than current coal power plants provide. Such fluctuations send strong price signals to consumers to balance their energy use over the day, given on the spot pricing, and to producers to invest in generating capacity of those renewables that can be harvested at peak-demand. They also signal the need for balancing capacity , not just for operational reliability , but also for market stability ’s sake. Options in this regard are large-scale storage facilities and interconnector capacity to link various sources to the same cross-border grid to manage intermittency effects.
- 20.
A benefit from decentralization and ‘island mode’ is a decrease in vulnerability to deliberate (cyber ) attacks that target the system as a whole. The risk is, however, that the consequences of a disruption in the local network might be more severe as there is no option for rerouting. Another drawback is that if power would become markedly cheaper abroad, the off-grid areas cannot purchase/import it.
- 21.
This relates not only to the fuel versus food debate for biofuels but also to local spatial planning regarding the use of scarce land in communities. Space availability may well prove to be the most limiting factor to the share decentral renewables can take in the energy mix.
- 22.
Once solar panels and wind turbines are constructed, they can produce power throughout their life-cycle. Coal and gas fired power plants, in contrast, require a continuous supply of resources throughout their life-cycle to produce electricity .
- 23.
Of course, it is questionable whether the mining sector can keep up once the energy transition picks up speed; the opening of new mines knows long lead times (many years, if not a decade) before they are fully operational. Then again, rare earth materials are not actually rare, they are mostly hard to extract from their surroundings and chemical bonds.
- 24.
It is important to stress that this expectation only reflects the market for generation equipment, not those for energy sources or energy carriers. There, things are set to change more drastically. Fossil fuels are traded in large volumes after production facilities are in place; gas-fired power plants or small-scale oil generators need a continuous supply to produce electricity . In contrast, wind and solar radiation are free goods. Moreover, renewable energy is likely to be traded less. As part of consumption is met by local generation , there is less demand on wholesale markets for energy from centralized installations.
- 25.
This trend does not imply all things will be electric. A renewable future, for example, will likely feature biogas pipelines and district heating for heat systems and hydrogen as energy carrier for heavy trucks, shipping, and aviation. It does, however, mark an overall trend away from the use of multiple modalities to a concentration around the use of electricity .
- 26.
The switch to renewables also affects mobility. While oil is dominant today, battery electric vehicles , hydrogen fuel cell technologies, and biofuels will make up renewable based transport. The market is likely to be split between BEV for personal transportation on the one hand and H2FC for heavy duty vehicles, shipping, and aviation on the other, with biofuels being a transition fuel until BEVs and H2FCVs are sufficiently established.
- 27.
While storage methods exist (pumped hydro storage, flywheels, batteries , super capacitors, compressed air energy storage, power-to-gas), their efficiency leaves much to be desired and those means with the greatest capacity have geographic limitations.
- 28.
This differs from oil and gas where the effect of an accident or sabotage action may be isolated to the part where it occurred and the entire network and its users need not be all, nor immediately, affected.
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Scholten, D. (2018). The Geopolitics of Renewables—An Introduction and Expectations. In: Scholten, D. (eds) The Geopolitics of Renewables. Lecture Notes in Energy, vol 61. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-67855-9_1
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