An Empirical Analysis on European Odds of English Premier League

Abstract

This study, taking the game results of 3800 matches of the English Premier League (2006/2007–2015/2016 seasons) and their odds offered by 347 lottery corporations worldwide as samples, built indices like Odds Adjustment Difference (OAD), Odds Difference Level, as well as Concordance Rate (CR), Draw Rate (DR), Reversal Rate (RR) between instant odds and game results, and applied those indices to the analysis of basic characteristics of European odds (also known as decimal odds). In addition, this study also put forward Odds Difference Coefficient (ODC), and compared it with the Competitive Balance Entropy (CBE) of the English Premier League, leading to the following conclusions: (1) The relationship between odds and the winning percentage followed a curve similar to “L” with an obvious inflection point; (2) In the English Premier League, the CR, DR and RR between instant odds and game results were 53.6, 25.8 and 20.6% respectively. The OAD between instant odds and low initial odds was the smallest, followed by that between instant odds and odds on draw, and that between instant odds and high initial odds; (3) The difference between low and high initial odds had a significant influence on the CR, DR and RR; to be more specific, when the odds difference increased, the CR would be significantly increased while the DR and RR were significantly reduced. The CR, DR and RR of the English Premier League were relatively stable in the recent 10 years; (4) The CBE of the English Premier League had a moderate negative correlation with its initial ODC; (5) Gamblers can refer to the OAD, and instant odds on CR, DR and RR, as well as ODC and CBE when betting on football matches, and some formulas and models are used by lottery corporations for analysis.