Abstract
Global, national and regional population projections are embedded in projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and in the anticipated impacts of climate change on food and water security. However, few studies acknowledge population growth as a variable affecting outcomes. Neither the uncertainty around population projections nor the scope for interventions to moderate growth is discussed. Instead, a deterministic approach is taken, assuming that population growth is governed by economic and educational advances.
This chapter reviews the treatment of population in climate change scenarios and the prospects for proactive interventions to influence outcomes. Sensitivity analyses have demonstrated population to be a dominant determinant of emissions. The assumption that population growth is determined by economic and educational settings is not well supported in historical evidence. Indeed, economic advance has rarely been sustained where fertility remained above three children per woman. In contrast, population-focused voluntary family planning programmes have achieved rapid fertility decline, even in very poor communities, and enabled more rapid economic advance.
Policy-based projections of global population are presented, based on the historical course of nations that implemented effective voluntary family planning programmes. If remaining high-fertility nations adopted such programmes, global population could yet peak below 9 billion. Current trends make it more likely to exceed 13 billion people by 2100 unless regional population pressures cause catastrophic mortality rates from conflict and famine. Global support for family planning could reduce population by 15% by 2050 and 45% by 2100 compared with the current trend. Co-benefits include gender equity, child health and nutrition, economic advancement, environmental protection and conflict avoidance.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Ahmed, N. M. (2017). Failing states, collapsing systems: biophysical triggers of political violence. Springer. Retrieved from http://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319478142
Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M. D. A., Dislich, C., Dodson, J. R., Engström, K., & Moran, D. (2015). Drivers for global agricultural land use change: The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy. Global Environmental Change, 35, 138–147.
APPG. (2015). Population dynamics and the sustainable development goals. A report by the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health, July 2015. Retrieved from http://www.appg-popdevrh.org.uk/Population%20Dynamics%20and%20the%20Sustainable%20Development%20Goals.pdf
Bajželj, B., Richards, K. S., Allwood, J. M., Smith, P., Dennis, J. S., Curmi, E., & Gilligan, C. A. (2014). Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation. Nature Climate Change, 4, 924–929. Retrieved from http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/full/nclimate2353.html.
Bigas, H. (Ed.). (2012). The global water crisis: Addressing an urgent security issue. Papers for the InterAction Council, 2011–2012. Hamilton, Canada: UNU-INWEH. Retrieved from http://inweh.unu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/WaterSecurity_The-Global-Water-Crisis.pdf.
Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12, 419–455.
Bongaarts, J. (2008). Fertility transitions in developing countries: Progress or stagnation? Studies in Family Planning, 39(2), 105–110.
Brookings Institute. (2011). The high cost of unintended pregnancy (Report). Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-high-cost-of-unintended-pregnancy/
Campbell, M. (2014). Ending the silence on population. In M. Hempel (Ed.), Facing the population challenge: Wisdom from the elders (pp. 65–71). Redlands, CA: Blue Planet United. Retrieved July 23, 2017 from https://www.facebook.com/pg/BluePlanetUnited/about/?ref=page_internal.
Campbell, M., Sahin-Hodoglugil, N. N., & Potts, M. (2009). Barriers to fertility regulation: A review of the literature. Studies in Family Planning, 37(2), 87–98.
Carter, R. C., & Parker, A. (2009). Climate change, population trends and groundwater in Africa. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 54(4), 676–689.
Casey, G., & Galor, O. (2017). Is faster economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? The role of diminished population growth. Environmental Research Letters, 12, 014003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/014003.
Cleland, J., Bernstein, S., Ezeh, A., Faundes, A., Glasier, A., & Innis, J. (2006). Family planning: The unfinished agenda. Lancet, 368(9549), 1810–1827.
Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment. (2015). Preventing unintended pregnancies is a smart investment. Retrieved from https://web.archive.org/web/20151110092403/ https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/sites/default/files/HPF_FP_UP-Cost-Avoidance-and-Medicaid.pdf
Guillebaud, J. (2016). Voluntary family planning to minimise and mitigate climate change. British Medical Journal, 353, i2102. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i2102.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Hearty, P., Ruedy, R., Kelley, M., Masson-Delmotte, V., et al. (2016). Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: Evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(6), 3761–3812. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016.
IPCC (2000). Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
IPCC. (2014). In O. Edenhoger (Ed.), Climate change 2014: Mitigation of climate change: Working group III contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Jorgenson, A. D., & Clark, B. (2010). Assessing the temporal stability of the population/environment relationship in comparative perspective: A cross-national panel study of carbon dioxide emissions, 1960–2005. Population and Environment, 32, 27–41.
Kriegler, E., Mouratiadou, I., Luderer, G., et al. (2013). Roadmaps towards sustainable energy futures and climate protection: A synthesis of results from the RoSE project (1st ed.). Potsdam: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Lagi, M., Bertrand, K. Z., Bar-Yam Y (2011). The food crises and political instability in North Africa and the Middle East. Cambridge, MA: New England Complex Systems Institute. Retrieved from http://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.2455.pdf
Marangoni, G., Tavoni, M., Bosetti, V., Borgonovo, E., Capros, P., Fricko, O., … van Vuuren, D. P. (2017). Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the shared socioeconomic pathways. Nature Climate Change 7:113–117. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3199., http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n2/full/nclimate3199.html
Moreland, S., & Smith, E. (2012). Modeling climate change, food security and population: Pilot testing the model in Ethiopia. Washington, DC: Futures Group with MEASURE Evaluation PRH. Retrieved from https://www.measureevaluation.org/resources/publications/sr-12-69.
Moreland, S., & Talbird, S. (2006). Achieving the Millennium Development Goals: The contribution of fulfilling the unmet need for family planning. Washington, DC: USAID. Retrieved from http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/Pnadm175.pdf.
Mutunga, C., & Hardee, K. (2010). Population and reproductive health in national adaptation programmes of action (NAPAs) for climate change. African Journal of Reproductive Health, 14(4), 133–146.
O’Neill, B. C., Dalton, M., Fuchs, R., Jiang, L., Pachaui, S., & Zigova, K. (2010). Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107, 17521–17526.
O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T. R., et al. (2013). A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socio-economic pathways. Climate Change Special Issue, 122(3), 387–400. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2.
O’Sullivan, J. N. (2012). The burden of durable asset acquisition in growing populations. Economic Affairs, 32(1), 31–37.
O’Sullivan, J. N. (2013). The cost of population growth in the UK. UK: Population Matters. Retrieved from http://populationmatters.org/documents/cost_population_growth.pdf
O’Sullivan, J. (2016). Population projections: Recipes for action, or inaction? Population and Sustainability, 1(1),45–57. Retrieved from https://www.populationmatters.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Population_and_Sustainability_Vol_1_No_1.pdf
Oregon Foundation for Reproductive Health. (2012). One key question: “Would you like to become pregnant in the next year?” Retrieved from http://www.onekeyquestion.org/
PAI, Pathfinder International, Sierra Club. (2015). Building resilient communities: The PHE way. Retrieved from http://womenatthecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Building-Resilient-Communities-The-PHE-Way.pdf.
Population Institute. (2015). Demographic vulnerability: Where population growth poses the greatest challenges. Retrieved from https://www.populationinstitute.org/demovulnerability/
PRB. (2011–2016). World population data sheet. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau. Retrieved from http://www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2015/2015-world-population-data-sheet.aspx
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., & Kriegler, E. (2017). The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153–168.
Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2017). A roadmap for rapid decarbonization. Science, 355(6331), 1269–1271. Retrieved from http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6331/1269.full
Ryerson, W. N. (2010). Population, the multiplier of everything else. In R. Heinberg & D. Lerch (Eds.), The post carbon reader: Managing the 21st century’s sustainability crises. Healdsburg, CA: Watershed Media. Retrieved from http://www.postcarbonreader.com
Samir, K. C., & Lutz, W. (2014). The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100. Global Environmental Change, 42, 181–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004.
Schellnhuber, H. J., Rahmstorf, S., & Winkelmann, R. (2016). Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris. Nature Climate Change, 6, 649–653.
Schleussner, C.-F., Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Lissner, T., Licker, R., Fischer, E. M., et al. (2016). Science and policy characteristics of the Paris agreement temperature goal. Nature Climate Change, 6, 827. https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3096.
Searchinger, T., Hanson, C., Waite, R., Lipinski, B., Leeson, G., & Harper, S. (2013). Achieving replacement level fertility (World Resources Institute working paper) Instalment 3 of “Creating a Sustainable Food Future”. Retrieved from http://www.wri.org/publication/achieving-replacement-level-fertility
Sinding, S. W. (2009). Population poverty and economic development. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences, 364, 3023–3030. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2009.0145.
Spratt, D. (2016). Climate reality check: After Paris, Counting the cost. Breakthrough, March 2016. Retrieved from http://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/#!papers/cxeo
Starbird, E., Norton, M., & Marcus, R. (2016). Investing in family planning: Key to achieving the sustainable development goals. Global Health, Science and Practice, 4, 191. https://doi.org/10.9745/GHSP-D-15-00374.
Tavernise, S. (2015, July 5). Colorado’s effort against teenage pregnancies is a startling success. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/science/colorados-push-against-teenage-pregnancies-is-a-startling-success.html
UN Economic and Social Council. (2010). Report of the Secretary-General on the flow of financial resources for assisting in the implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (E/CN.9/2010/5). Retrieved from http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/documents/cpd-report/index.shtml
UNDESA. (2004). World population in 2300. Population Division, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf
UNDESA. (2011). World population prospects, the 2010 revision. Population Division, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-the-2010-revision.html
UNDESA. (2013). World population prospects, the 2012 revision. Population Division, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-the-2012-revision.html
UNDESA. (2015) World population prospects, the 2015 revision. Population Division, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Retrieved from https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/
UNFPA. (1994). Programme of action: Adopted at the international conference on population and development. Cairo, Egypt: United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., O’Neill, B., Ebi, K., Riahi, K., Carter, T. R., et al. (2014). A new scenario framework for climate change research: Scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change Special Issue, 122(3), 373–386. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1.
Vörösmarty, C. J., Green, P., Salisbury, J., & Lammers, R. B. (2000). Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science, 289, 284–288.
Wheeler, D., & Hammer, D. (2010). The economics of population policy for carbon emissions reduction in developing countries (Center for Global Development, Working Paper 229, November 2010). Retrieved from http://www.cgdev.org/publication/economics-population-policy-carbon-emissions-reduction-developing-countries-working
Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital. (2015). Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer Version 1.2. Retrieved from www.wittgensteincentre.org/dataexplorer
Worldwatch Institute. (2015) Vital Signs report: Food trade and self-sufficiency. Retrieved from http://vitalsigns.worldwatch.org/vs-trend/food-trade-and-self-sufficiency
Young, M. H. Mogelgaard, K., & Hardee, K. (2009). Projecting population, projecting climate change: population in IPCC Scenarios (PAI Working Paper WP09–02). Population Action International. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237249604_Projecting_Population_Projecting_Climate_Change_Population_in_IPCC_Scenarios
Zeng, N., Neelin, J. D., Lau, K. M., & Tucker, C. J. (1999). Enhancement of interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel by vegetation interaction. Science, 286, 1537–1540.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2018 Springer International Publishing AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
O’Sullivan, J.N. (2018). Synergy between Population Policy, Climate Adaptation and Mitigation. In: Hossain, M., Hales, R., Sarker, T. (eds) Pathways to a Sustainable Economy . Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-67702-6_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-67702-6_7
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-67701-9
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-67702-6
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)