A Temporal-Causal Model for Spread of Messages in Disasters

  • Eric Fernandes de Mello Araújo
  • Annelore Franke
  • Rukshar Wagid Hosain
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 10449)


In this paper we describe a temporal-causal model for the spread of messages in disaster situations based on emotion contagion and awareness works. An evaluation of the model has been done by simulation experiments and mathematical analysis. Parameter tuning was done based on two scenarios, including a credible message and a dubious message. The results are useful for the prediction of reactions during disasters, and can be extended to other applications that involve panic and supportive systems to assist people.


Temporal-causal modeling Disaster Agent-based model 



E.F.M. Araujos funding is provided by the Science without Borders Program, through the CAPES (reference 13538-13-6).


  1. 1.
    Hall, A.: The north sea flood of 1953. Arcadia, (5) (2013)Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Takken, W.: Wat doen we als de randstad onder water staat? NRC handelsblad (2016)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Blake, S., Galea, E., Westeng, H., Dixon, A.J.P.: An analysis of human behaviour during the WTC disaster of 11 based on published survivor accounts. In: Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium on Human Behaviour in Fire, vol. 1, p. 3. 2004, September 2001Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Paton, D.: Disaster preparedness: a social-cognitive perspective. Disaster Prev. Manag.: Int. J. 12(3), 210–216 (2003)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Bosse, T., Hoogendoorn, M., Klein, M.C.A., Treur, J., Van Der Wal, C.N., Van Wissen, A.: Modelling collective decision making in groups and crowds: integrating social contagion and interacting emotions, beliefs and intentions. Auton. Agents Multi-Agent Syst. 27(1), 52–84 (2013)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Thilakarathne, D.J., Treur, J.: Modelling the dynamics of emotional awareness, pp. 885–890 (2014)Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Thilakarathne, D.J., Treur, J.: Modelling prior and retrospective awareness of actions, pp. 62–73 (2013)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    Treur, J.: Network-Oriented Modeling and Its Conceptual Foundations. Springer International Publishing, Cham (2016). pp. 3–33CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. 9.
    Ekman, P.: Basic Emotions. Handbook of Cognition and Emtion. Wiley, Hoboken (1999)Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    Valenza, G., Lanata, A., Scilingo, E.P.: The role of nonlinear dynamics in affective valence and arousal recognition. IEEE Trans. Affect. Comput. 3(2), 237–249 (2012)CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Eric Fernandes de Mello Araújo
    • 1
  • Annelore Franke
    • 1
  • Rukshar Wagid Hosain
    • 1
  1. 1.VU AmsterdamAmsterdamThe Netherlands

Personalised recommendations