A Temporal-Causal Model for Spread of Messages in Disasters
In this paper we describe a temporal-causal model for the spread of messages in disaster situations based on emotion contagion and awareness works. An evaluation of the model has been done by simulation experiments and mathematical analysis. Parameter tuning was done based on two scenarios, including a credible message and a dubious message. The results are useful for the prediction of reactions during disasters, and can be extended to other applications that involve panic and supportive systems to assist people.
KeywordsTemporal-causal modeling Disaster Agent-based model
E.F.M. Araujos funding is provided by the Science without Borders Program, through the CAPES (reference 13538-13-6).
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