Looking Ahead: Current Trajectory and Key Uncertainties

  • Rahmatallah Poudineh
  • Craig Brown
  • Benjamin Foley


Europe’s offshore wind industry has provided evidence of learning curve efficiencies setting in, with project economics (as measured by levelised cost of energy) drastically improving since 2015. Moving towards the end of the decade, the question becomes whether this cost curve trajectory is sustainable and if these efficiencies can be replicated in the emerging offshore wind markets of North America and Asia. This chapter summarises the current trajectory of the offshore wind industry and presents factors affecting it, including policy uncertainty in key markets and the evolution of wholesale power market prices, that could have global ramifications to the industry.


Offshore wind Future developments Uncertainties Electricity prices Brexit Trump 


  1. Bloomberg New Energy Finance. (2017). Record $30bn Year for Offshore Wind but Overall Investment Down. Bloomberg. Jan 12. Accessed online. February 10, 2017.
  2. Catapult Offshore Renewable Energy. (2017). Cost Reduction Monitoring Framework 2016 (CRFM). Qualitative Summary Report. January 2017.
  3. EIA. (2017, May 31). Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative Auction Prices are the Lowest Since 2014. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Accessed 28 Aug 2017.
  4. European Commission. (2016). Energy Prices and Costs in Europe. Report form the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, The European Economic and Social Committed and the Committee of the Regions. November 30. COM (2016) 769 Final. pp. 4–5.Google Scholar
  5. Navingo. (2017, January 13). International Business Guide Report. Offshore Wind, p. 16.

Copyright information

© The Author(s) 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Rahmatallah Poudineh
    • 1
  • Craig Brown
    • 1
  • Benjamin Foley
    • 2
  1. 1.The Oxford Institute for Energy StudiesOxfordUK
  2. 2.Keystone Engineering Inc.New OrleansUSA

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