Skip to main content

Towards Inverse Uncertainty Quantification in Software Development (Short Paper)

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNTCS,volume 10469))

Abstract

With the purpose of delivering more robust systems, this paper revisits the problem of Inverse Uncertainty Quantification that is related to the discrepancy between the measured data at runtime (while the system executes) and the formal specification (i.e., a mathematical model) of the system under consideration, and the value calibration of unknown parameters in the model. We foster an approach to quantify and mitigate system uncertainty during the development cycle by combining Bayesian reasoning and online Model-based testing.

This is a short paper accepted in the new ideas and work-in-progress section of SEFM 2017.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

References

  1. Garlan, D.: Software engineering in an uncertain world. In: Proceedings of the FSE/SDP Workshop on Future of Software Engineering Research, pp. 125–128 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Esfahani, N., Malek, S.: Uncertainty in self-adaptive software systems. In: Lemos, R., Giese, H., Müller, H.A., Shaw, M. (eds.) Software Engineering for Self-Adaptive Systems II. LNCS, vol. 7475, pp. 214–238. Springer, Heidelberg (2013). doi:10.1007/978-3-642-35813-5_9

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  3. Ramirez, A.J., Jensen, A.C., Cheng, B.H.C.: A taxonomy of uncertainty for dynamically adaptive systems. In: Proceedings of the 7th International Symposium on Software Engineering for Adaptive and Self-Managing Systems (SEAMS), pp. 99–108 (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  4. Arendt, P.D., Apley, D.W., Chen, W.: Quantification of model uncertainty: calibration, model discrepancy, and identifiability. J. Mech. Des. 134(10) (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Lee, S.H., Chen, W.: A comparative study of uncertainty propagation methods for black-box-type problems. Struct. Multi. Optim. 37(3), 239 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Berger, J.: Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis, Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, New York (1985)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Broy, M., Jonsson, B., Katoen, J.-P., Leucker, M., Pretschner, A.: Model-Based Testing of Reactive Systems: Advanced Lectures (Lecture Notes in Computer Science). Springer, New York (2005)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  8. Insua, D., Ruggeri, F., Wiper, M.: Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Process Models, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics. Wiley, Hoboken (2012)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  9. Kwiatkowska, M., Norman, G., Parker, D.: PRISM 4.0: verification of probabilistic real-time systems. In: Gopalakrishnan, G., Qadeer, S. (eds.) CAV 2011. LNCS, vol. 6806, pp. 585–591. Springer, Heidelberg (2011). doi:10.1007/978-3-642-22110-1_47

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  10. Kwiatkowska, M., Norman, G., Pacheco, A.: Model checking expected time and expected reward formulae with random time bounds. Comput. Mathe. Appl. 51(2), 305–316 (2006)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  11. Tretmans, J., Belinfante, A.: Automatic testing with formal methods. In: 7th European International Conference on Software Testing, Analysis & Review, pp. 8–12 (1999)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Perkins, T.J.: Maximum likelihood trajectories for continuous-time markov chains. In: Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, pp. 1437–1445 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Perez-Palacin, D., Mirandola, R.: Uncertainties in the modeling of self-adaptive systems: a taxonomy and an example of availability evaluation. In: Proceedings of the 5th ACM/SPEC International Conference on Performance Engineering, pp. 3–14 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Epifani, I., Ghezzi, C., Mirandola, R., Tamburrelli, G.: Model evolution by run-time parameter adaptation. In: 2009 IEEE 31st International Conference on Software Engineering, pp. 111–121, May 2009

    Google Scholar 

  15. Calinescu, R., Ghezzi, C., Johnson, K., Pezzè, M., Rafiq, Y., Tamburrelli, G.: Formal verification with confidence intervals to establish quality of service properties of software systems. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 65(1), 107–125 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Walkinshaw, N., Fraser, G.: Uncertainty-driven black-box test data generation. In: IEEE International Conference on Software Testing, Verification and Validation (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  17. Namin, A.S., Sridharan, M.: Bayesian reasoning for software testing. In: Proceedings of the FSE/SDP Workshop on Future of Software Engineering Research, pp. 349–354 (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Bernardo, J., Smith, A.: Bayesian Theory, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics. Wiley, Hoboken (2006)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Matteo Camilli .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2017 Springer International Publishing AG

About this paper

Cite this paper

Camilli, M., Gargantini, A., Scandurra, P., Bellettini, C. (2017). Towards Inverse Uncertainty Quantification in Software Development (Short Paper). In: Cimatti, A., Sirjani, M. (eds) Software Engineering and Formal Methods. SEFM 2017. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 10469. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-66197-1_24

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-66197-1_24

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-66196-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-66197-1

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics