Abstract
I characterize the objectives of fundamental physics in such a way that the only admissible “return” on investments in a research program is the experimental discovery of previously unknown physical phenomena.
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Notes
- 1.
One of my favorite examples of reinterpretation of experimental results is provided by comparing the description of experimental results on the gain or loss of weight by materials being burned that was fashionable at the time of the Phlogiston Theory and the description of those same experimental results that became fashionable after the discovery of oxygen. The discovery of oxygen in no way affects the robustness of previous experimental results on the gain or loss of weight by materials being burned. The discovery of oxygen in no way led to the discovery of unnoticed sources of systematic error in those experimental results. The same experimental results apply equally well to the interpretations informed by the discovery of oxygen. Experiments done nowdays on the gain or loss of weight by materials being burned still find results for those changes of weight that are fully consistent with the ones from 3 centuries ago. Surely now Phlogiston Theory feels like a pretty strange sort of interpretation. Chances are our current interpretation of gain or loss of weight by materials being burned will feel pretty funny at some point in the future. However, experimental facts gathered 300 years ago on gain or loss of weight by materials being burned are still equally valuable now and will still be equally valuable in the future.
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Acknowledgements
I first presented my notion of winning probability for fundamental-physics research programs in September 2015 at a meeting hosted by the University of Wroclaw. I am indebted to Jerzy Kowalski-Klikman for reassuring me that such an unusual choice of topic could be a valuable contribution to that meeting. The choice of illustrative examples that I should focus on, among quantum-gravity-phenomenology research programs, took shape at a meeting hosted by the Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies in September 2016, also inspired by a discussion moderated by Sabine Hossenfelder, in which Sabine inspiringly urged participants to discuss their subjective priorities among quantum-gravity-phenomenology research programs.
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Amelino-Camelia, G. (2018). Return on Investment in Quantum-Gravity Research. In: Hossenfelder, S. (eds) Experimental Search for Quantum Gravity. FIAS Interdisciplinary Science Series. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-64537-7_10
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