Mathematical Models for the Epidemiology and Evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

  • Jūlija Pečerska
  • James Wood
  • Mark M. Tanaka
  • Tanja Stadler
Part of the Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology book series (AEMB, volume 1019)


This chapter reviews the use of mathematical and computational models to facilitate understanding of the epidemiology and evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. First, we introduce general epidemiological models, and describe their use with respect to epidemiological dynamics of a single strain and of multiple strains of M. tuberculosis. In particular, we discuss multi-strain models that include drug sensitivity and drug resistance. Second, we describe models for the evolution of M. tuberculosis within and between hosts, and how the resulting diversity of strains can be assessed by considering the evolutionary relationships among different strains. Third, we discuss developments in integrating evolutionary and epidemiological models to analyse M. tuberculosis genetic sequencing data. We conclude the chapter with a discussion of the practical implications of modelling – particularly modelling strain diversity – for controlling the spread of tuberculosis, and future directions for research in this area.


Strain variation Heterogeneity Population biology Phylogeny Phylodynamics Molecular epidemiology Compartmental model 


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jūlija Pečerska
    • 1
  • James Wood
    • 2
  • Mark M. Tanaka
    • 3
  • Tanja Stadler
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Biosystems Science and EngineeringETH ZürichBaselSwitzerland
  2. 2.School of Public Health and Community MedicineUNSW SydneySydneyAustralia
  3. 3.School of Biotechnology & Biomolecular Sciences, and Evolution & Ecology Research CentreUNSW SydneySydneyAustralia

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