Abstract
This chapter is to update the assessment of potential military applications of nanotechnology published in 2006. Expecting nanotechnology to bring the next industrial revolution, around 2000 many countries started research and development (R&D) programs. In particular in the US National Nanotechnology Initiative, military aspects have figured prominently, with a budget share around 30% until 2008, then slowly decreasing to about 10%. While applications are increasingly emphasized, most of the work is still at the research stage. Many other countries do military R&D of nanotechnology, too, but apparently at a much lower level of funding. Rough estimates of 2006 about when specific military applications would arrive have turned out about correct in one third of the cases, but for the others the expected arrival times have to be postponed by five to 10 years.
When re-considering the list of potential military applications, the 30 areas given in 2006 still seem appropriate. Also their evaluation under criteria of preventive arms control does not need to be changed. The eight applications that would be particularly dangerous to arms control and international humanitarian law, to international peace and military stability, or to humans and societies in peace time, remain the same: small sensors, small missiles, small satellites, small robots, metal-free firearms, implants and other body manipulation, autonomous weapon systems, and new biochemical weapons. They should be subject to specific international bans or limits as proposed in 2006.
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Notes
- 1.
The annual DoD R&D budget had been around $50 billion in the 1990s, was increased to above $75 billion 2005–2010, then was reduced again, passing through $60 billion in 2013. This was roughly parallel to the time course of the total defence budget with values of $400 billion, $760 billion and $600 billion, respectively (all nominal dollars) [<CitationRef CitationID="CR33" >33</Citation Ref>].
- 2.
For more information see the annual reports to Congress on DoD NT R&D until 2009 [e.g. <CitationRef CitationID="CR39" >39</Citation Ref>]. Later, overviews on DoD activities were given in the annual NNI Budget Supplements [e.g. <CitationRef CitationID="CR40" >40</Citation Ref>].
- 3.
From 2010 on there was no longer an annual report on the DoD NT R&D program; instead the annual NNI budget supplements gave some detail on DoD activities. These documents do not discuss military NT in other countries.
- 4.
The full name is “Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons Which May be Deemed to be Excessively Injurious or to Have Indiscriminate Effects”. This framework agreement at present has five Protocols of which Protocol IV on Blinding Laser Weapons (1995) is the only preventive one; it could be a role model for a Protocol VI on AWS.
- 5.
The notion used in the CCW context is „Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAWS)”, but non-lethal AWS pose similar fundamental questions. Thus, optimally all AWS should be included in a future CCW protocol prohibiting or limiting weapon systems that select and engage targets without human control.
- 6.
The main agreement in this category is the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe of 1990; however, it is under severe stress at present and should be reinvigorated.
- 7.
In the 2006 book I was too cautious in stating that for “at least one decade –, artificial systems will not reach such a level” [<CitationRef CitationID="CR73" >73</Citation Ref>]. Despite remarkable advances in artificial intelligence, in 2017 it is obvious that this condition has not been reached; it is probably safe to state that this goal will not be achieved for at least two more decades.
- 8.
Such a scenario had been described in a report by the US RAND Corporation [<CitationRef CitationID="CR74" >74</Citation Ref>], later wrongly assigned to Chinese military planning [<CitationRef CitationID="CR75" >75</Citation Ref>] while the Chinese source [<CitationRef CitationID="CR76" >76</Citation Ref>] just had reported to a Chinese military audience about the RAND report.
- 9.
Capable of functioning on their own, with power supply and communication link.
- 10.
On land, on/under water, in air.
- 11.
For more details on exceptions, inclusion of civilian uses and verification see [<CitationRef CitationID="CR78" >78</Citation Ref>].
- 12.
At present, 11 countries have got armed drones and further 10 are developing them [<CitationRef CitationID="CR84" >84</Citation Ref>].
- 13.
This could mean overcoming the security dilemma by creating a monopoly of legitimate violence resting with a democratized United Nations Organization, similar to the situation in many democratic states where citizens need not arm themselves because the state protects their security. Obviously getting there would be a long and complicated process, but first steps in this direction have been made already, with UN, International Tribunals, European Union etc.
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Altmann, J. (2017). Preventing Hostile and Malevolent Use of Nanotechnology Military Nanotechnology After 15 Years of the US National Nanotechnology Initiative. In: Martellini, M., Malizia, A. (eds) Cyber and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, Explosives Challenges. Terrorism, Security, and Computation. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62108-1_4
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