Multi-criteria Analysis for Spatial Modelling of Forest Protection Zones

Abstract

Irrational utilization of land and fast developing of infrastructure due to increase in the population has led to the stagnation of the forest landscape. Deforestation results in, the demise of forest cover for the purpose of agriculture development or implementing urban architecture or it could be an implication of unrestricted grazing. This documentation is focused to represents and consul a procedure and process for the forest retention and conservation. Spatial modelling has been employed to contemplate the land cover changes using Markov chain and CA-Markov to predict LULC for 2020. Deforestation has become a leading environmental subject due to its effects and which plays a crucial part in destruction of natural ecology. Therefore, defining the fitness criteria of forest and finding the effective parameters causing deforestation can help in forest management and conservation. For the assessment of Forest fitness criteria Slope, EVI, Forest Land use type and distance to roads, drainage network, and settlement have been used as criteria of factor maps. Distance importance chart has been developed for each factor based on the threshold values with respect to forest. By using Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) process, the Forest Protection Zones have been pointed, the pockets that are most susceptible to deforestation in 2020 have been identified and forests have also been mapped that are most important to protect in future. Thematic land use land cover types of 1992, 2005 and 2009 of Landsat sensor have been classified. The spatial extent decrease from 1999 to 2009 of forest has been observed to be 9.76% and if the proper measures will not be taken then from 2009 to 2020 the predicted forest spatial extent decrease has been observed to be 4.59%. The projected Land use Land Cover map for 2020 would provide useful inputs to decision makers. The forests are located at lower elevation and close to roads have been observed most vulnerable to clearance. Distance to roads and settlements are explored as the major factors for loss of forest.