Climate Change and Projections of Temperature-Related Mortality
The impacts of increasing year-round temperatures on mortality from all non-accidental, all cardiovascular, and all non-cardiovascular causes were examined in the city of Akchangelsk in Russian North, where the climate change signal is expected to be stronger than the global average. Projections of future daily temperatures were made for IPCC B2, A1B, and A2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios using regional downscaling of the selected ensemble of 16 general circulation models. The distributed lag nonlinear models were used to estimate 30-day cumulative risks of the exposure to heat and cold. The projected changes in annual fractions of deaths attributed to nonoptimal temperatures are negative and not significant at 95% confidence level for all categories of mortality and emission pathways included in the study. The benefits of reduced cold-related mortality will most likely outweigh the negative impacts of higher heat-related mortality during the projection period 2045–2056. However, this situation may be reversed in the longer run.
KeywordsClimate projections Population health Distributed lag nonlinear models Nonoptimal temperatures Attributable fractions and attributable numbers of deaths
Funding source: The research has been supported by the grant program of Russian Science Foundation, Project No. 16-18-10324. “Human in Megalopolis: Economic, Demographic and Ecological Features”. The authors highlight the input of their colleagues from Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory in Saint-Petersburg, Russian Federation, who developed regional climate projections for this study: Valentin Meleshko, Veronika Govorkova, and Tatyana Pavlova.
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