Analysis and Prediction of Population Aging Trend Based on Population Development Model

  • Jiancheng HuEmail author
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes on Multidisciplinary Industrial Engineering book series (LNMUINEN)


In recent years, with the acceleration of population aging, the development of population structure is an important factor that influences economy and social development of China. This paper studied the future trend of population in Sichuan of China by establishing a population development equation. Taken the statistical data of census in 2010 in Sichuan, some important factors, such as survival rate, fertility mode and gender ratio etc. are considered to estimate the population structure, especially the proportion of older people, in Sichuan. The model is utilized to predict the population aging trend and aging index in the case of different total fertility rate and to provide reference for the government to make corresponding social and economic decisions.


Population aging Population development equation Aging index Total fertility rate 



This research is supported by the Scientific Research Foundation of CUIT (Grant No. KYTZ201425) and Center of System science and Enterprise Development Research (Grant No. Xq16C01).


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.College of Applied MathematicsChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduPeople’s Republic of China

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