How to Predict Financing Efficiency in Public-Private Partnerships–In an Aspect of Uncertainties
Financing efficiency in Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects is a vital but impressionable aspect, whose likely consequence always influenced by inevitable uncertainties and confused the stakeholders. This study aims to investigate the methods for evaluating and predicting the relative efficiency of current financing scheme in PPP project, which surrounding with various uncertainties. The current study proposed a new algorithm for assessing the inancing efficiency and simulating the flexibilities in PPP projects simultaneously. Furthermore, it integrates DEA and Monte Carlo to provide the possible probability distribution of financing efficiency which takes the uncertainties in PPP. A case study is given to show its feasibility and practicability. It shows uncertainties in PPP projects considerably count for its deviation from the optimum value. This innovative model provides an avenue to predict the effects and possible outcome of an optimal scheme, which is important for financing scheme decision making.
KeywordsPPP Monte Carlo DEA Financing efficiency
The authors would like to thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China for financially supporting this research (Grant No.: 71502011). It is also supported by the Fundamental Funds for Humanities and Social Sciences of Beijing Jiaotong University (Grant No.: 2015jbwj013).
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