GM(1.1) Model Based Leshan’s Industries Shift-Share Analysis and Prediction

  • Hongxing Lan
  • Caiyang Xu
  • Zhiyi MengEmail author
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes on Multidisciplinary Industrial Engineering book series (LNMUINEN)


The technique of shift-share method [6] and GM(1.1) model [4] are applied for a dynamic assessment and predictive study of industries between the year of 2010 and 2015 in Leshan city, choosing Sichuan province as a background. With the actuality, some advice was put forward on how to adjust and optimize the development of industries of Leshan. The survey shows that the secondary industry is the key factor to the whole economic development of Leshan City. Leshan’s tertiary industries had a weak competitiveness and will develop more slowly, department structure contributed a little to the rapid growth of economic total; Tourist industry and trade are lack of competitiveness, while the transportation industry industries ran on a small scale and contribute little to the growth of economic total. Hence, it’s important and necessary to formulate the industry development strategy based on objective scientific analysis of Leshan’s industries.


GM(1.1) model Shift-share Leshan city Industrial policy 



This work was supported by the Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation ot the Ministry of Education (Grant No. 16YJC30089), and the Sichuan Center for science and Enterprise Development Research (Grant No. Xq16C04)


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Business CollegeSichuan Agricultural UniversityDujiangyanPeople’s Republic of China
  2. 2.Southwest Poverty Reduction CenterSichuan Agricultural UniversityChengduPeople’s Republic of China

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