A Sequencing of the Economic Effects of Brexit
Welfens investigates the economic effects of Brexit since 2016 and provides an outlook on the likely effects still to come in 2017–2019 and what these may cost. It is shown that the short-term economic effects of the referendum are quite small while the long-run effects are quite considerable for the UK and the EU. So far, there has been a lack of economic understanding of the dynamics of regional economic disintegration, both in Europe and beyond (e.g., ASEAN and Mercosur). The non-provision of basic economic information to voters is examined in detail and questions raised about the role of the Cameron government and Her Majesty’s Treasury. Using methodology from political-economy, it is shown that result could easily have been a vote for Remain.
- Adler, J. (2016). Ist dies schon Tollheit, hat es doch Methode, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Guest Contribution on August 8, 2016. http://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/BREXIT-offenbart-das-britische-verfassungsdefizit-14376231.html.
- Aichele, R., & Felbermayr, G. (2015). Costs and benefits of a United Kingdom exit from the European Union. Gütersloh: Ifo Study for the Bertelsmann Foundation.Google Scholar
- Bruno, R. et al. (2016). Gravitating towards Europe: An Econometric Analysis of the FDI Effects of EU Membership, Technical Appendix to Dhingra et al. (2016), Center for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, London.Google Scholar
- Busch, B., & Matthes, J. (2016). Brexit—The Economic Impact. A Meta-Analysis. Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft.Google Scholar
- Centre for European Reform. (2016). The economic consequences of leaving the EU. The final report of the CER commission on Brexit 2016, April 2016, London.Google Scholar
- Dhingra, S., Ottaviano, G., Sampson, T., & van Reenen, J. (2016). The impact of Brexit on foreign investment in the UK. PAPERBREXIT03. London School of Economics, London: Center for Economic Performance.Google Scholar
- Dolmas, J. (1998). Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles. Review of Economic Dynamics, 646–676.Google Scholar
- European Commission. (2017a). European Economic Forecast, Winter 2017, DG ECFIN, Institutional Paper 048, February 2017, Brussels.Google Scholar
- European Commission. (2017b). White paper on the future of Europe, reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025, March 2017, Brussels.Google Scholar
- Hibbs, D. A. Jnr. (2005). Voting and the Macroeconomy, University of Göteborg (for the Oxford Handbook of Political Economy).Google Scholar
- HM Government. (2015). Prime Minister’s speech on Europe, PM Cameron’s Chatham House speech delivered 10 November 2015. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-speech-on-europe.
- HM Government. (2016a). Why the Government believes that voting to remain in the European Union is the best decision for the UK, London. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf.
- HM Government. (2016b). HM Treasury analysis: The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives, London, April 2016. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analysis-the-long-term-economic-impact-of-eu-membership-and-the-alternatives.
- House of Commons. (2016). Commons Chamber debate transcript. April 11, 2016, Vol. 608, Minister for Europe, Mr. David Lidington. Available at: https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2016–04-11/debates/16041110000001/GovernmentReferendumLeaflet.
- Jungmittag, A. & Welfens, P. J. J. (2016). Beyond EU-US trade dynamics: TTIP effects related to foreign direct investment and innovation. EIIW Paper No. 212—Presented at the IMF, Washington DC, June 28, 2016; forthcoming in Journal www.eiiw.eu.
- Kafsack, H. & Stabenow, M. (2016). Junckers Gelübde und Farages Schmähkritik, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, No. 149, Politics Section, 29 June 2016, p. 3.Google Scholar
- Lucas, R. (1987). Models of business cycles. Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
- Mance, H. (2016). Britain has had enough of experts, says Gove. Financial Times, Online Edition, 3 June.Google Scholar
- McGrattan, E. R., & Waddle, A. (2017). The impact of Brexit on foreign investment and production (NBER Working Paper No. 23217). Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
- Ottaviano, G., et al. (2014). The costs and benefits of leaving the EU. London: Centre for Economic Performance.Google Scholar
- Paldam, M. (2008). Vote and Popularity Functions. In C. K. Rowley and F. G. Schneider (Eds.), Readings in public choice and constitutional political economy (pp. 533–550). Springer.Google Scholar
- Persson, M., et al. (2015). What if…? The Consequences, challenges & opportunities facing Britain outside EU, Open Europe Report 3/2015. London: Brussels, Berlin.Google Scholar
- Stegmaier, M., & Williams, L. (2016). Forecasting the 2015 British election through party popularity functions. Electoral Studies, 41, 260–263.Google Scholar
- Welfens, P. J. J. (2017a). Negative welfare effects from enhanced international M&As in the Post-Brexit-Referendum UK, EIIW Paper No. 232, forthcoming www.eiiw.eu.