Abstract
We have simulated air pollution levels over the Arctic for a 37 years period from 1979 to 2015 using a 3D hemispheric chemistry-transport model, the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM). The observed and simulated trends have been analysed at a number of sites in the Arctic. The levels of SO2 are decreasing over the simulated period, which follows the decreased anthropogenic emission in source areas. Differences in trends between sites can be explained by the influence from different source areas. The levels of O3 are almost constant over the 37 year period and no difference in trends between sites can be seen.
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References
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Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge the contributions of Arctic Research Centre (ARC), Aarhus University. The research leading to these results has received funding from the Danish Environmental Protection Agency as part of the environmental support program Dancea—Danish Cooperation for Environment in the Arctic. The authors are solely responsible for all results and conclusions presented in the paper; these do not necessarily reflect the position of the Danish Environmental Protection Agency. This work is a contribution to the Arctic Science Partnership (ASP).
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Questioner: Emmanouil Oikonomakis
Question: Have you investigated trends in the sub-periods of the total period, because it seems that there may be and if they exist are they related to any synoptic meteorological patterns?
Answer: We have not investigated the trends in sub-periods and their relations to synoptic scale meteorological patterns. This will be the subject for further analysis of the data.
Questioner: Wouter Lefebvre
Question: Is sea ice taken into account? And if so, do you see already an effect on for instance SOx and O3 deposition, especially in winter?
Answer: Yes, sea ice extent is taken into account in DEHM. We have not investigated the data in detail so we cannot see if there is an effect of changed sea ice cover on the deposition. But an earlier study with the DEHM model coupled to climate data, showed a decrease in the dry deposition of O3 over the Arctic marine areas following the projected decrease in sea ice towards the end of the 21st century (Hedegaard et al. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2012, 2, 546–561; http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2012.24050).
Questioner: Heinke Schlünzen
Question: Sea ice has reduced considerably, especially in summer and autumn with minimum extents found more and more. As a hypothesis, might it be possible that ozone concentrations could have increased in the Arctic if the sea ice cover where still the same as several decades ago? Is the main reason for the missing increase in O3 the lost impact of the reflective sea ice covered areas?
Answer: We will further investigate the relationship between the predicted ozone concentrations and the extent of sea ice so we can test this hypothesis.
Questioner: Mikhail Sofiev
Question: Asian high-emission area is only partly in the domain, which puts substantially challenges to boundary conditions arrangements. What did you use for the boundaries?
Answer: The boundary conditions on O3 are from a 3D climatological O3 field based on radiosonde data (Logan, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 16115–16149, 1999). That the Asian high-emission area is only partly in the domain will introduce some uncertainty into the contribution to the Arctic from this area. However, the influence from Southeast Asian sources on surface concentrations in the Arctic is not expected to be as large as to the concentrations in mid-latitudes. This will be included in a further analysis of the data.
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Hansen, K.M., Geels, C., Im, U., Brandt, J., Christensen, J.H. (2018). Modelling Concentrations and Trends of Atmospheric Pollutants in the Arctic over a 37 Years Period. In: Mensink, C., Kallos, G. (eds) Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXV. ITM 2016. Springer Proceedings in Complexity. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57645-9_7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57645-9_7
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