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Predicting the Unpredictable: Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Project Completion Date

  • Lucas ColucciEmail author
  • Raphael Albino
Conference paper
  • 975 Downloads
Part of the Communications in Computer and Information Science book series (CCIS, volume 680)

Abstract

If you work with software development you will probably face two important, but not always convergent, aspects: scope and delivery cadence. The process of aligning the expectations of product increment and team throughput is usually arduous but, when this happens, it improves the chances of project success. Stakeholders frequently want the project done faster than it is possible for us to do it. And then, when they ask the date on which we will finish the work, we never have the right answer. In the last two years, while working with different projects at Plataformatec, we have been trying to solve that problem in many different ways: mean throughput, linear regression and even manually adjusting our predictions. However, all of them had their drawbacks. This paper presents what we think will be the best approach to forecast project deadline: Monte Carlo Simulation. We explain how it works, how to apply it in a project and how you can benefit from using it.

Keywords

Monte carlo simulation Statistics Project management Metrics Agile methodology Prediction Forecast 

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.PlataformatecSão PauloBrazil

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