Enhancing Grammatical Evolution Through Data Augmentation: Application to Blood Glucose Forecasting

  • Jose Manuel Velasco
  • Oscar Garnica
  • Sergio Contador
  • Jose Manuel Colmenar
  • Esther Maqueda
  • Marta Botella
  • Juan Lanchares
  • J. Ignacio Hidalgo
Conference paper
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 10199)

Abstract

Currently, Diabetes Mellitus Type 1 patients are waiting hopefully for the arrival of the Artificial Pancreas (AP) in a near future. AP systems will control the blood glucose of people that suffer the disease, improving their lives and reducing the risks they face everyday. At the core of the AP, an algorithm will forecast future glucose levels and estimate insulin bolus sizes. Grammatical Evolution (GE) has been proved as a suitable algorithm for predicting glucose levels. Nevertheless, one the main obstacles that researches have found for training the GE models is the lack of significant amounts of data. As in many other fields in medicine, the collection of data from real patients is very complex. In this paper, we propose a data augmentation algorithm that generates synthetic glucose time series from real data. The synthetic time series can be used to train a unique GE model or to produce several GE models that work together in a combining system. Our experimental results show that, in a scarce data context, Grammatical Evolution models can get more accurate and robust predictions using data augmentation.

Keywords

Grammatical Evolution Diabetes Time series forecasting Data augmentation Combining systems 

Notes

Acknowledgment

This research is supported by the Spanish Minister of Science and Innovation (TIN2014-54806-R).

The authors would like to thank the staff in the Principe de Asturias Hospital at Alcala de Henares for their support and assistance with this project. Special thanks also go to Maria Aranzazu Aramendi Zurimendi and Remedios Martinez Rodriguez.

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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing AG 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jose Manuel Velasco
    • 1
  • Oscar Garnica
    • 1
  • Sergio Contador
    • 1
  • Jose Manuel Colmenar
    • 2
  • Esther Maqueda
    • 3
  • Marta Botella
    • 4
  • Juan Lanchares
    • 1
  • J. Ignacio Hidalgo
    • 1
  1. 1.Universidad Complutense de MadridMadridSpain
  2. 2.Universidad Rey Juan CarlosMóstolesSpain
  3. 3.Hospital Virgen de la SaludToledoSpain
  4. 4.Hospital U. Principe AsturiasAlcala de HenaresSpain

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